Washington is on the outside but the NCAA Tournament path is clear

COLLEGE BASKETBALL: JAN 17 Michigan State at Washington
COLLEGE BASKETBALL: JAN 17 Michigan State at Washington | Icon Sportswire/GettyImages

Washington Huskies fans are not optimistic about the NCAA Tournament this year, and they have good reason for it. However, the Huskies control their own destiny still, and their resume is nowhere near as bad as it may feel with three losses in a row. Let's look at the resume and the path into the tournament.

Washington Huskies Tournament Resume

Record: 10-9
Games left: 12
NET Rating: 62
KenPom: 50
Quad 1 record: 1-6
Quad 2 record: 2-3
Quad 3 record: 2-0
Quad 4 record: 5-0
Best wins: USC (56) and Ohio State (36)
Worst losses: Seattle (111) and Colorado (78)

The Huskies' path to the NCAA Tournament

The Huskies still have four quad 1 games left (as of now), three quad 2 games, and five quad 3 games. Which is a remarkably easier path than what they've been on up to this point.

If Washington can beat Oregon tomorrow at home and steal one of the next quad 1 wins (which all four are in a row), that would be a great resume boost. They play Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, and UCLA. Ideally, winning two of those four would dramatically improve their NCAA Tournament bid.

The Huskies need at least one of those. Then they need to take care of business the rest of the year when they have seven games in a row that are either quad 2 or 3. There is a chance a couple of those can and will change, i.e., Wisconsin, which is on the verge of being a quad 1 game already.

If the Huskies can finish the season at 7-4 or better, ideally 8-3, they will realistically be in the field or at least on the bubble. That's the scenario it would take, but the Dawgs also control their own destiny. If they can figure things out and get a few big wins over the next couple of weeks, and then beat up on the bottom of the Big Ten, they won't be able to deny them entry.

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