Calculating Washington football wins needed for College Football Playoff at-large bid

The College Football Playoff will be expanding to 12 teams starting this season, so there is an easier opportunity to make the playoff than there ever has been. Washington has made it to the CFP twice since it started back in 2014, their most recent berth this past season in 2023.

Now things look a little different for Washington, they have a new head coach, a batch of new starters, and the biggest change is that instead of playing in the Pac-12, they will officially be moving to the Big Ten Conference.

Looking at a lot of different preseason and way-to-early rankings, the Huskies are still projected to finish in the top five of the Big Ten this season, but they are not necessarily projected to win the conference. With the new 12-team playoff, the five power conferences get automatic bids and the next seven best teams will make it in. So technically, Washington doesn't have to win the conference to make it to the CFP for the third time.

According to the graphic above, there is a magic number of 10 wins that the Huskies need to reach in order to make it into the CFP theoretically. With a lot of new things happening and a tough schedule ahead of them, there are some questions of how Washington will come out in 2024.

Where will the X wins for (team) come from in 2024?

Looking at Washington's tough 2024 schedule, they are going to need to win the easy ones and hope for the best on the tough ones. It all starts with their non-conference games. The first two non-conference games are against Weber State and Eastern Michigan. These games should be easy ones for the Huskies and game to get their feet under them.

Their next game will be against a team that was left behind in the Pac-12 and the Huskies' rival Washington State. This game should be another easy win for the Huskies but they will be playing at Lumen Field in a hostile environment, but it is a win they need.

Now going into conference play, there are four games they should have the best chance of winning. They will be the team that is most likely favored and those games will be against Northwestern, Rutgers Indiana, and UCLA. Two are at home, against UCLA and Northwestern, and the other two away at Rutgers and Indiana.

That leaves Washington at seven wins so far on the season, and five games left. They would need to win three of those five games, so let's take a look at who those five opponents are.

The final five opponents are Michigan, Iowa, USC, Penn State, and Oregon. Looking at those opponents, the three that would probably be the easiest to beat would be Michigan, USC, and Iowa. The games against Michigan and USC will be at home in Husky Stadium which will give Washington the edge with the home crowd on their side. Also both Michigan and USC just lost their star starting quarterbacks, so they will have a new guy under center.

That leaves Iowa and the reason Iowa is probably the easier win over Penn State and Oregon is because Iowa's offense struggles more than the others. Their defense is one of the best in the country, but they lost key players to the NFL Draft and they will need to rebuild that amazing defense.

That puts Washington at the magic number of 10 wins. It is going to be tough, but the Huskies can make it back to the CFP for the second year in a row.