The Husky Haul
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ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Washington Huskies slim chance against Oregon Ducks

By Ethan Lee

Nov 15, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Will Rogers (7) during warmups before the game against the UCLA Bruins at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
Nov 15, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Will Rogers (7) during warmups before the game against the UCLA Bruins at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
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The Washington Huskies are facing an uphill battle as they take on the top-ranked Oregon Ducks in Autzen Stadium this weekend. As Jedd Fisch and the Huskies head to Eugene, they’re going to be notable underdogs in this rivalry matchup. At least that’s the case if you ask ESPN Analytics (and just about any neutral party that happens to be headed to Las Vegas to gamble on this game right now).

According to the latest numbers from the ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor, the Huskies have just an 11.2 percent chance of coming out on top of the Ducks on Saturday. That’s not exactly a great percentage if you’re wanting Washington to win this game. 

So, what does that mean for the Ducks and Huskies? Is UW’s fate set in stone simply because some computer calculations and scenarios have Oregon coming out on top and ending Washington’s three-game winning streak in this rivalry?

Well, it’s a little complicated.

ESPN FPI projections heavily favor No. 1 ranked Oregon Ducks in rivalry matchup with Washington Huskies

Essentially, to oversimplify this whole thing, along with all of the numbers that are thrown into a bunch of computers for ESPN’s Football Power Index, some simulations of games are run. And basically, Washington just isn’t winning many of these hypothetical computer matchups. 

As these two teams get set to face off for the first time in the Big Ten, it’s worth remembering that rivalry can often bring a bit of chaos. 

Along with all of the other context that is worth considering at the moment (including just how dominant Dan Lanning and the Ducks have been at times this season and how flawed they’ve looked at others), it’s worth considering that maybe the human element of all of this might matter a bit.

Or maybe it won’t. And maybe Oregon will come out and absolutely steamroll Washington. I, for one, don’t want to see that happen. But we do need to acknowledge the possibility of such a thing happening, I suppose. 

Washington has won three games in a row in this series and the Huskies hold an all-time series lead of 63-48-5. But this game feels a little different than some of those recent wins over Oregon in the past couple seasons. UW is in a rebuilding year while Oregon has a cohesive roster built ready to compete for a national title. 

Washington will need to demonstrate that it can contend with a national title caliber team to be able to pull off this rivalry road upset this weekend. We’ll see how it unfolds as the Huskies and Ducks meet up at 4:30 p.m. in Autzen Stadium. 

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