Margin for error has been a theme for the Washington Huskies all season long in 2025, as going past it was the reason they earned both of their losses to Big Ten powerhouses Ohio State and Michigan. Now, with those two defeats already on the ledger, Washington’s path forward leaves virtually no room for error if it hopes to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation.
The Huskies will absolutely need to win out to simply have a shot of being considered by the election committee, as it's likely other top-ranked teams will need to lose certain games, as well. However, it's not impossible.
According to ESPN FPI after Week 8, the Huskies have a 5.2% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff -- sandwiched between Arizona State at 5.9% and Iowa at 3%. This gives them the 34th best odds in college football, with only 12 spots available in the dance, meaning there are plenty of teams to hurdle.
This projected percentage goes hand in hand with ESPN's "win-out percentage," the percent of simulations where a team won the rest of its remaining games. Washington tallied 5.8% by that metric, as perhaps the simulations lean towards it losing one of its two ranked matchups against Illinois and Oregon.
That proves just how crucial those games will be, as wins in those contests will dramatically sway UW's odds to reach the CFP, and it's a statistic fans should keep their eye on if the Huskies can beat No. 23 Illinois this Saturday.
Beyond these raw numbers that can sometimes be hard to contextualize, victories in those games serve as crucial résumé boosters. If Washington wins out and Oregon remains ranked entering that final matchup, finishing 10-2 with two ranked wins and only losses to No. 1 Ohio State and a Michigan team that's been in and out the top 25 would make for a compelling playoff case.
With Ohio State and Indiana basically locks to play in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Huskies have no hope that winning out would guarantee them a spot in that game and a potential automatic bid. The Huskies would need an at-large bid from the selection committee, and if the the AP Poll is any indication of what the media thinks of them, then they'll be fighting an uphill battle.
So while Washington may only have a puncher's chance, it's a chance nevertheless.