The 2018 Washington Football team has reason to feel confident after enduring an injury plagued season, and adding one of the most talented recruiting classes ever for the Huskies
How real is the belief that the 2018 Washington Football team has the potential to reclaim the Pac-12 Championship game this season. Toss the hype of player “potential” aside for a moment. This is not an article about the scouting rankings. You can find those virtually anywhere.
This is an article sizing up new recruits for their talent and how that will translate into their possible fit with the Washington Football team. It’s also a skeptical look at what did, and did not work in 2017. And so, just mix it all up with some analysis and projection? And then, what are the results? A bright future. In fact, right now it’s a very bright future.
Injuries, disappointments, unrealized goals
Let’s ignore the wins from 2017. Success teaches us little. In each victory, the Huskies outscored their opponents. But moreso, the gameplan worked. The coaching staff solved the puzzle for that week of what it took to come out on top. But the team did not succeed on three seperate occasions. Still, it was just three losses. Did the team simply fail to show up in 3 of 13 games? I don’t think it is nearly as simple as all of that.
By the time the 2017 NCAA football season began, the Washington Football team showed up with some pretty impressive play. And from that point, the fanbase warmed rapidly to the team. Early and impressive wins helped to elevate expectations, and assuage concerns of fans who witnessed so many talented players claimed in the 2017 NFL Draft. But the team began to lose key contributors to injury. The teams retooled pass defense suffered a setback with injuries to cornerback Byron Murphy and Jordan Miller. The offense suffered setbacks as well, losing wide receivers Chico McClatcher and Quinten Pounds, left tackle Trey Adams, and freshman tight end Hunter Bryant.
Learning from losses
In the team’s first loss, a surprise 14-7 loss to Arizona State University, the offense never gathered its wits. And in the defensive contest that ensued, the Sun Devils took full advantage of the desert heat and home field advantage to walk away with a win. The game was particularly frustrating after the fact when the box stats revealed that the team abandoned a very productive running game needlessly. C’est la vie
In the second loss, the Stanford Cardinals rode the back of running back Bryce Love, and a season high performance from JJ Arcega-Whiteside, to derail the Huskies 30-22. The third and final loss, the Fiesta Bowl, the team had no an answer for Penn State’s combination of running back Sasquan Barkley paired up quarterback Trace McSorley‘s passing to DaeSean Hamilton.
Time of Possession
Water under the bridge. But the lessons remain, whether the team reacts or not. In the three losses, the team seemed reluctant, almost to a fault, to lean heavily into the running game. In each loss, the featured running back for the Huskies, Myles Gaskin, averaged better than 4.8 yards per carry. But his carries averaged no better than 15.6 per game. In stark contrast, the opponent running back averaged 19 carries.
An effective running game allows two things: it moves the chains and wears down the defense. And it provides ample rest to the defense as well. Time of possession is important in the course of each game stretched over a season. But with so many injuries, that critical distribution of time on the field can mean the difference between a win or a loss.
Are the holes unplugged?
In the case of the Washington Football, are the roster holes plugged? Or better yet, are the running lanes unplugged? With all the offense returning with the exception of WR Dante Pettis, center Coleman Shelton, offensive tackle Andrew Kirkland, running back Lavon Coleman, and tight end Will Dissly, this offense is intact. Considering the platooning of the offensive skill players, the team already has starters coming in to fill the roster voids.
With the exception of Shelton, the line will welcome back four starters. While Will Dissly will find his fortunes in the NFL, the team retains TEs Drew Sample and Hunter Bryant. So the expectation is that the running game with flourish once more.
2016 rushing attack, part II
In fact, with the promotion of running back Salvon Ahmed this season, the team may see incredible production from the running game. Gaskin will get his annual dose of 1,300 plus yards. But I can see Ahmed upping his 388 yard total to over 1,000 yards as well.
If that running game explodes on the upside, the Washington offense will have a “2016” feel to it again. In that year, Gaskin churned out 1,373 yards. Lavon Coleman put up 852 yards as well. If 2018 runs comparable, Gaskin will come in on/about 1,400 yards, and Salvon Ahmed comes in at 900 yards. That changes the offense dynamics, and that adds some vigor to the defense late in the season as well.
Passing game improves too
With injuries to receivers, the Washington Huskies passing game suffered in 2017. In fact, it was a career low for quarterback Jake Browning in term of passing yards. While he maintained a solid 19 TD to 5 INT ratio, and improved his completion percentage by six points, the Huskies’ passing game seldom felt in-the-groove.
In 2017, the passing game was one part Dante Pettis, one part tight ends, one part running backs, and one part “all others”. That “all other” category includes the three game totals of Chico McClatcher. Much of the struggle was the turnstyle of players falling to injury and new players stepping up on the offense. In 2018, the team will lose both Pettis and Dissly. But the team gets both McClatcher and Bryant back from injury. And with their return, the team recovers the production of Pettis and Dissly in the passing game. But that does nothing to up the ante.
New faces, higher places
That is where the three receivers of Marquis Spiker, Austin Osborne, and Devin Culp make a serious play for playing time and receiving yards. All three are quite capable, pending a solid spring training and preseason workouts, of getting solid playing time in this offense. One receiver, Marquis Spiker, is already projected to be a huge addition for the team by Husky Haul’s own Cody Tyo. And he could very well be correct.
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If one of the three (or more) show up in a big way, this passing game can recover to those 2016 levels as well. Ultimately, the Washington Huskies simply did not have the horses to compete in 2017 shootouts. But from the perspective of February 2018, and with no expectation of repeating injuries, the Huskies appear to be loaded offensively. That changes the outcomes of the three losses. A solid running game with confidence in the offensive scheme wins at Arizona State and Stanford. A rejuvinated passing game beats Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, much like the USC come-from-behind victory over the Nittany Lions. The Huskies are loaded. The team appears to have a strong hand heading into 2018. I say it’s a winning hand.