In what is becoming an annual event, pundits continue to overinflate USC potential, and under inflate UW production. SB Nation’s Bill Connelly joins in with a forecast of USC over Washington Football
The preseason debate is back in full swing, as NCAA pundits give their best guesses as to the outcomes of 2017 NCAA college football, and particularly, PAC-12 results. The surprising success of the Washington Huskies last season is now a thing of the past. How quickly pundits and analysts forget the mistake of looking past the Washington Huskies. One more, those same prognosticators scry through looking glasses for this year’s success story.
There are two rankings to discuss here, and we’ll break each down in painfully thorough fashion.
NCAA Projections
First of all, SB Nation Bill Connelly has created his 2017 annual preseason NCAA college ranking projections via the S & P + formula as used by Football Outsiders.
Secondly, Connelly creates a more focused 2017 NCAA football projection to hone more specific analysis upon the PAC-12 conference as a whole. In both cases (no surprise as it’s the same author), the Washington Football team line up lower than USC. In fact, the Huskies project lower than Stanford as well. And there’s the rub.
There’s A Flaw In My Ranking
Much of the assessment in this case is to look at the team’s losses and gains via player attrition and recruitment, and then factor in the past season performance. While that works in an “All Things Equal” environment, there is a distinct flaw in the assessment.
Autzen Zoo
Recruiting classes are based on individual athleticism. But it’s no more indicative of NCAA success then an NFL Combine translates into the next NFL Superbowl team. Coaching, scheme, discipline, and focus become key elements of any team assessment. It has been clear that Coach Petersen gets far more from his players than USC gets from their higher ranked recruits on an annual basis, and have for some time.
Coaching Advantage: Washington
In similar fashion, ESPN has run a similar sort of ranking earlier in the year. They too look at recruiting class and team performance.
But the analytics fail to integrate the added value of the team coaching staff. There is no other way to explain the simple truth that USC continues to recruit higher ranked classes to the sunshine-minded prospects of southern California. But come game day, it’s the Washington Huskies who produce more convincingly.
Don’t Discount Jake Browning
Much of the uberhype over the USC is the surprise success for freshman quarterback Sam Darnold. And yes, he was very impressive as a freshman. Similarly, Huskies quarterback Jake Browning had a very impressive sophomore season. But let’s compare the two, shall we?
Stripe Hype
Darnold played in 13 games, threw for 3,086 yards for 31 touchdowns and 9 interceptions for a 161.1 passer rating. He completed 67.2 percent of his passes for an 8.4 yards per attempt. Now that’s pretty good, ole son. But sit down in that chair right there and let Jake Browning show you how it’s done.
Browning Better (Am I Biased?)
Browning played in 14 games, threw for 3,430 yards for 41 touchdowns and 9 interceptions for a 167.5 passer rating. He completed 62.1 percent of his passes for an 8.8 yards per attempt. And before we visit the entire “that’s pretty close”, keep in mind that Jake Browning played with an injury midway through the season.
While the nation “wows” over Darnold’s performance, Jake Browning has more incentive to perform well. You see, he likely is playing for an NFL contract, and he will only get one shot at impressing NFL scouts.
But then there is a matter of the Huskies losing three star defensive backs in the draft. Let’s focus on NFL Draft impacts to both teams?
2017 NFL Draft
The 2017 NFL Draft impact to the Washington Football team is well documented. In fact, the NFL Draft impacted the Washington Football Team most of all. But Washington was not the only NCAA program with drafted players.
The Washington Huskies propelled five players into the 2017 NFL Draft. Three players entered the NFL as undrafted free agents. And one player left football to play Rugby. In total, the Huskies lost nine players. All in all, the team lost three defensive backs, two linebackers, a tight end, a wide receiver, a defensive tackle, and an offensive lineman.
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USC Draft Losses Considerable
Similarly, USC lost five players to the 2017 NFL Draft (albeit later in the draft). But the Trojans lost an additional five players as undrafted free agents. The Trojans lost two defensive backs, a tight end, two wide receivers, a nose tackle, three offensive linemen, and a running back.
Michael Castillo of Reign of Troy does a masterful job of summarizing the players on their way to an NFL career. But notice the makeup of USC players? Three offensive linemen including a center. I suspect that will not be as seamless of a transition for the Trojans as so many pundits believe.
Bill Connelly does a great job each year with his annual NCAA projections. And his articles are not intended, in my perspective, to be a factual “this is the way everything will go down” as much as a thought provoking discussion catalyst.
PAC-12 Champs
As a matter of fact, the massive amounts of intricate details to generate such a project requires streamlining what is weighed in the projections. This discussion simply adds back some contributing factors which were omitted in the original analysis.
USC is a fine football program. But the Washington Huskies are the defending PAC-12 champs. Until some team takes that title from them on the field of play, it’s my job to ensure they retain it in the media.