Pac-12 Standings: 2013 Preseason Prediction

December 29, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cameron Marshall (6) is congratulated by teammates after rushing for a touchdown against the Navy Midshipmen in the third quarter at AT

Figured I would lay out how I predict things will turn out in the Pac-12 this season. I won’t bother including predicted records yet, and these are not power rankings.

Pac-12 North

1. Oregon: This is pretty much a no-brainer in that Oregon’s dominance in the Pac-12 North has been largely uninterrupted as of late. Starting quarterback Marcus Mariota is a young star, there is still massive talent at the skill positions, and the defense will continue to play better than average. It’s a proven formula, and this year it just may get them to a national title. There is, however, the chance that Chip Kelly’s departure doesn’t go as smoothly as the Harbaugh departure at Stanford. But if I’m living in Eugene, I’m not losing any sleep over that slim possibility.

2. Stanford: A loaded, physical defense and a power offense headlined by a beefy offensive line loaded with future-NFL types and complimented by an underrated “winner” of a starting quarterback in Kevin Hogan who should improve in his first full year as a starter. Though Oregon and Stanford play entirely different styles of football, they both have a formula, and Stanford’s is as dependable as can be. They will win nine or so games no matter what. But if they can find a suitable replacement to Stepfan Taylor at running back and see Kevin Hogan do a solid Andrew Luck impression by making the right decisions in the play-action passing game, it could easily be ten or eleven.

3. Washington: It would not shock anyone if Washington ends up switching places with Oregon State in these standings come December. I just think this is the year Coach Sark turns seven regular season wins into nine, and I think that will be enough for third in these standings and a solid bowl game. The schedule doesn’t include a bomb like last year’s road trip to LSU, but that doesn’t mean it’s a soft slate. Oregon and at Stanford in back to back weeks and several difficult conference road games will mean that getting to that magic number nine will require that this team is for real. No more late-season collapses, or else Sark may finally feel his seat warming up.

4. Oregon State: The Beavers were definitely better than the Huskies last season, but they have serious questions on both lines and a truly brutal second-half stretch on their schedule. Stanford, USC, at ASU, Washington, and at Oregon. OSU will be lucky to win two of those games, leaving them almost no margin for error in the softer first half of the year. I’m thinking no more than 7 or 8 wins, which will likely mean that the November 23rd date vs. UW will be a pivotal one.

5. Washington State: Call me crazy, but I think things will click a bit more for Coach Leach and his vertical offense in year two. The depth at receiver is serious and the defense will be stouter than most expect. Connor Halliday needs to step in and hold down the starting quarterback spot successfully, but if he does, I see an incremental move to four or five wins from last season’s three victories.

6. Cal: Most people have the Cougars and the Golden Bears flipped, but I don’t have high hopes for Cal in their first season under Coach Dykes. Several games are almost certain losses on this brutal schedule, including Ohio State, at Oregon, and at Stanford. Road games to UCLA and Washington will be nearly as difficult, and home games against USC, Oregon State, and Northwestern will be no joke. Maybe next year or the year after, but not this year for Cal.

Pac-12 South

1. Arizona State: I have the Sun Devils at the top, but I can’t say I’m all that confident. ASU, UCLA, and USC could be rearranged any which way at the top of the South and it would be reasonable. For me, it’s 2012 surprise QB Taylor Kelly and the stingy defense led by 2012 Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year DT Will Sutton that tips the balance in the Sun Devils favor. They miss Oregon, but play Wisconsin and Notre Dame, so they will need to win a couple of the big-time games and take care of business against the bottom of the South in order to hold on to the top spot.

2. UCLA: Brett Hundley is a star at quarterback and the defense is littered with a few studs, specifically pass-rusher Anthony Barr, but questions at running back, defensive back, and the offensive line threaten to hold up the momentum gained in 2012. Nebraska, Oregon, Stanford, and USC all come on the road. I like the Bruins, but I think UCLA fans may need to settle for eight wins and a victory over the Trojans this season.

3. USC: They may have the five-star talent, but they don’t have a head coach I trust to steer this program towards success and they don’t have a proven starting quarterback. I’m thinking eight wins with a tough loss to UCLA to finish third. The Trojans are lucky they start out with four relatively easy games at Hawaii, vs. WSU, vs. Boston College, and vs. Utah State and that they miss Oregon all together.

4. Arizona: I’m not so confident that Arizona will settle into mediocrity in 2013. It’s just that I can’t really see ASU, USC, or UCLA finishing below them in the standings, so I have them becoming a casualty of the Pac-12’s depth.

5. Utah: I do see Utah settling into mediocrity in 2013. They could be solid, but I don’t see them beating any of the top four or five teams on their conference schedule, and that leaves just about zero margin for error if the Utes want to make noise in the standings.

6. Colorado: Oh Colorado. I honestly hope you surprise everyone and win every game. But I think you’ll probably win two or three.