Pac-12 Bubble Watch: Conference Tournament Edition

It’s Pac-12 Tourney Time! This is the last chance for all of the bubble teams to make their last statement to the NCAA tournament selection committee that they deserve to get an at-large berth. In addition, as we in HuskyLand know all-to-well the last two years, it may be absolutely critical to any of the teams in the conference to win the whole thing to make sure they are not sweating on Selection Sunday. Over the next 5 days, all of the questions will be answered. But, until then, let’s see what the possibilities are.

—– Possible NCAA Tournament Teams —–

1) California (23-8 overall, 13-5 in Pac-12, RPI 37)- I still think Cal is in a good position to get an at-large berth. That RPI and decent record has to give them consideration over some of the other teams out there like Northwestern or Drexel. I do think that a loss on Thursday would put them in a very uncomfortable position come Selection Sunday. But, I believe one win will be enough. The bad news is that that game might come against a hot Stanford team. The good news is that they might have a chance at revenge against their cross-town rival. NCAA tournament on the line, revenge for losing the regular season title, and rivalry game are three very motivating factors.

Probability of making the NCAA Tournament: 62% Projected Seed: 10

2) Washington (21-9 overall, 14-4 in Pac-12, RPI 56)- I think the Huskies earned the right to make the Big Dance by winning the conference championship. But, a loss in the 2nd round would really get the guys sweating. It’s a game they ought to win anyways if they think they deserve to be in the NCAA tournament. But, I am quite confidence that one win is enough. Two wins would be a guaruntee in my mind.

Probability of making the NCAA Tournament: 60% Projected Seed: 11

3) Oregon (22-8 overall, 13-5 in Pac-12, RPI 46)- The Ducks have one thing going for them, they have a higher RPI than the league champions. Oregon is right on the very edge of the bubble, sitting two spots out on Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology. One win in the conference tournament is not enough. The Ducks need to make one last statement, which means they need to beat either California or Stanford in the conference semi-finals and at least show up in the final on Sunday.

Probability of making the NCAA Tournament: 45% Projected Seed: NIT #1 seed (host first two rounds at money-making Matt Knight Arena)

4) Arizona (21-10 overall, 12-6 in Pac-12, RPI 78)- Arizona is sitting seven spots out of the tournament according to Joe Lunardi. That loss against Arizona State pushed them from in to way out. Their only hope for an at-large berth is an appearance in the conference final. That would likely mean beating the conference champion Huskies who swept them this year. Even that might not be enough and will likely depend on how other bubble teams do this week.

Probability of making the NCAA Tournament: 20% Projected Seed: NIT #3 seed