How Do the Huskies' At-Large Chances Look?
Before the Huskies play their Pac-10 Tournament game against Oregon State, here’s a look at how their chances for an at-large bid look at this point from another one of our new contributors. Thanks, DD, for the great piece.
by Dawg Diggler (formerly known as “Griffin”)
Let’s play…… THE BUBBLE GAME! (click for music)
It’s the game that’s taking the country by storm! You know the rules. You can only pick one of these bubble teams to go into the NCAA tournament and the rest are doomed to the NIT. Don’t cheat!
Team “X”:
Expected RPI (after this weekend): 49
Record: 21-9
Strength of Schedule (SOS): 61
Vs. top 50: 2-2
Vs. top 25: 2-2
Quality Wins (RPI): (11), (20), (53)
Bad Losses (RPI): (148), (147), 2 (110)
Team “Y”:
Expected RPI: 75
Record: 18-13
SOS: 41
Vs. top 50: 4-8
Vs. top 25: 3-4
Quality Wins: (16), (25), (22), (27)
Bad Losses: (155), (117)
Team “Z”:
Expected RPI : 51
Record: 23-8
SOS: 81
Vs. top 50: 2-5
Vs. top 25: 0-3
Quality Wins: 2(40), (57)
Bad Losses: (200), (160), (191)
You make your pick? If you picked team “X”, congratulations! That’s our Washington Huskies. As of now, they are the first team out in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology on ESPN. If you picked team “Y”, then you chose Illinois. And team “Z” is Memphis. Both of those teams are on Lunardi’s “last four in” list. Shame on you if you picked “Y” or “Z.”
If you want to compare and contrast your own teams, go to realtimerpi.com, or you can use rpiforecast.com.
Who to root for this weekend:
As we all know, the conference tournaments are sink or swim for bubble teams. If a bunch of Cinderellas win their league tournaments, the at-large bids start to evaporate. For the Huskies, we want to maximize the number of at-large bids, so we can have the best chance possible to make it, assuming we don’t win the Pac-10 Tournament. Conference by conference, here’s who you need to be rooting for this weekend.
ACC/Big East/Big 12: No real worries here. Each of these three conferences has seven or eight at-large bids locked up, so the only thing to root against here is a big underdog going on a run for the ages. And, of course, root against Duke. I hate Duke.
Atlantic 10: With Temple, Richmond, and Xavier already likely in the tourney, we need to be pulling for one of those 3 teams to win. Focus all of your hate towards Dayton, Charlotte, and especially Rhode Island.
Big 10: We need Illinois to lose against Wisconsin in the first round. This could be the single biggest game for the Dawgs going on outside of the Pac-10 Tournament. If the Illini win a game, they are most likely in, but if they lose their second game in a row, it’d be questionable. Another potential Husky-heartbreaker is Minnesota. They should lose to Michigan State in the second round, but if they win it could be trouble.
Big West/MAC/MEAC/Southland/SWAC: These conferences do not matter at all. They have zero at large bids, so the winner of their tournaments gets the bid and that’s that.
Conference USA: This is a muddy conference and resembles the PAC-10. UTEP is the best, with UAB and Memphis sitting on the bubble. Some believe that a potential UAB/Memphis semifinal match-up is potentially an elimination game, like many are predicting an ASU/UW game would be. Root for UAB or Memphis to lose early, and the other to win. I’m pulling for UAB because I loved Squeaky Johnson.
MWC: New Mexico, BYU, and UNLV look to have their at-large bids locked up. San Diego State must not beat New Mexico in their potential semifinal. The Aztecs are on the bubble with the Dawgs and a win for them would easily push them into the tournament and steal another at-large bid. Root for the Lobos all the way here.
Pac- 10: Root for the Huskies. You got that? I’m not making any assumptions. Another team to root for is Cal. Best case is a Dawgs/Cal final. Experts have thrown out the idea that if Arizona upsets Cal and then beats the Huskies in the championship game, a win over ASU in the semis may not be enough for UW.
SEC: Root against Florida. They seem to be on the edge of the tournament and a loss early to Auburn could push them all the way out. Other than that, it’s pretty cut and dry.
WAC: Root against Nevada. Root for Utah State. These two teams will very likely meet in the finals because they are easily the two best. Utah State has a case for an at-large bid even if they lose that game. Nevada, however, needs to win to get in. If the Wolfpack win the game and Utah State earns an at-large, the Huskies chances get even slimmer.
Have faith Husky Nation. We WILL make it to The Big Sance. I can feel it in my bones. If karma exists, we are due for the good kind. A couple prayers here and there wouldn’t hurt either.
Thanks for coming!