December 6, 2012; Berkeley, CA, USA; UNLV Runnin’ Rebels forward Mike Moser (43) drives toward the basket against the California Golden Bears during the first half at Haas Pavilion. UNLV won 76-75. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Kline from The Recruit Scoop was the first to report that Mike Moser has made his official decision and is transferring to the University of Oregon. This comes as a surprise to many, as on April 5, Jeff Goodman of CBS Sports seemed convinced Moser’s choice would be UW.

For a couple weeks, this seemed to be the popular opinion, partially because no other schools had been named, and partially because of Goodman’s article, in which he said, “It’s almost done that he’s going to transfer and play at Washington.”

A couple weeks later, it came out that Moser was going to visit Oregon and Gonzaga. Until the news came out of his visit to Oregon, not only had I been optimistic, but excited. In a previous article of mine, I wrote about how Moser could have been the player to put the Huskies over the top this season and potentially make them one of the favorites in the Pac-12.

All my hopes and dreams came crashing down just a short while ago however, when the report came out that Moser has decided on Oregon.

Although I was a bit surprised by this news, it makes sense, considering Moser is from Portland and had great success in his time there. Moser was a two-sport star in high school, being a four-year letterman in both basketball and track. In basketball he earned first team All-6A Portland League and all-city honors each of his four years and was an all-state player his last three years. During his time at Grant High School, his teams posted a record of 76-32 (.704) and won the league title each of his last three seasons. The postseason success resulted in him winning the state title in 2008.

Moser’s high school numbers were terrific, including 28.3 points and 13 rebounds per game as a senior which resulted in him being ranked very highly coming out of school. Some rankings even had him as high as the No. 39 player and No. 7 small forward in the country.

He didn’t play much his freshman year at UCLA and afterwards transferred to UNLV. His first eligible season at UNLV was 2011-2012 and really broke out as a star, earning a spot on the All-Mountain West Conference team and being named an honorable mention for the AP All-America team. This past year, however, he struggled with injuries and his numbers were way down. Some suspect that another reason for his struggles was homesickness.

That is the reason given by Moser as to why he has chosen to transfer back to the Pacific Northwest. Because of this, it really isn’t much of a shock that Moser chose Oregon over UW. Although his hometown of Portland isn’t more than a few hours drive from UW, it is still over an hour farther away, and in a different state than the University of Oregon.

Obviously, this news is a bit disheartening for Husky fans. But I still think next year has a chance to be a great one, with lots of depth in the backcourt and the frontcourt.

For more details on how the team looks for next year, check out my article on C.J. Wilcox’s choice to return to school.

Feb 7, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Washington Huskies guard C.J. Wilcox (23) drives against UCLA Bruins guard Norman Powell (4) during the game at the Pauley Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

As Evan Webeck wrote about earlier, C.J. Wilcox has officially made the decision to forego the NBA and return to the Huskies for his senior season. This gives the Huskies a dynamic backcourt with incoming freshman and top recruit Nigel Williams-Goss as well as Andrew Andrews. This combined with incoming freshman Jahmel Taylor and junior college transfer Mike Anderson gives the Huskies scary depth as well as real talent at the guard position.

I have liked everything I have seen and heard about Williams-Goss and I think he will be able to come in and start right away. Taylor is a 5’11’’ guard from California who will be able to play a good backup point guard if Andrews is playing shooting guard. This is where I think Andrews fits a little better anyways because he is somewhat of a combo guard type of player. JUCO transfer Mike Anderson is a 6’5’’ shooting guard who has drawn comparisons to Scott Suggs in terms of shooting, but is much better at driving to the basket. He seems like he could make an immediate impact as well and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take over Suggs’ role entirely and start for the Dawgs.

The backcourt is obviously going to be loaded next season, and I think a starting group of Williams-Goss, Anderson, and Wilcox with a combination of Andrews, Hikeem Stewart, and Taylor coming off the bench could one of the top guard units in the Pac-12.

I expect the frontcourt to be pretty good as well, with Desmond Simmons and Shawn Kemp Jr. being the most likely candidates to get the two starting roles. Simmons seemed to regress a little bit last year after a strong freshman campaign, but he rebounds and plays defense very well, and with some work on his offense he could be a very strong player.

Kemp, however, went the opposite direction last year and really flourished once he got the chance to start. His post moves were much improved and that, combined with his athleticism, makes him a productive and entertaining player as well.

Jernard Jarreau is the third returning frontcourt player who got some quality minutes last year and while he showed some nice flashes, he was simply too small to compete for long stretches. If he bulks up and puts on some muscle in the offseason, I think Jarreau could be a really good forward off the bench because of his shooting ability.

Similarly to recent number one overall pick Anthony Davis, Jarreau was a guard much of his high school career until a late growth spurt, which has resulted in him having decent ball handling ability and a pretty solid mid-range jumper. If he can build some muscle to help him defensively and on the glass, Jarreau could be a really good player.

Perris Blackwell transferred last season from the University of San Fransisco, but had to sit out a year because of transfer rules and only has one year of eligibility remaining. That being said, I think he could be a great piece to the frontcourt puzzle coming off the bench. His last season at USF, he earned All West Coast Conference honorable mention and averaged 12.7 points and 6.1 rebounds per game while shooting 57.5 percent from the field. One big number that I like from Blackwell is the fact that he averaged just under three offensive rebounds per game his final season at USF; if he can bring this to the Huskies as well as defense and energy, he will be a perfect role player to come off the bench.

The true last piece to the puzzle for the Huskies is UNLV transfer Mike Moser. He is deciding between UW and Oregon and is visiting both schools this weekend. Moser had a down year last year at UNLV, but this is partially due to injury and being misplaced at the three. The year before, he was one of the top players in the conference and was even an honorable mention for the AP All-America team. That season he averaged 14.0 points and 10.5 rebounds per game while shooting well from the field and from the line; he even averaged a solid 33.1 percent from beyond the arc. If Moser does end up choosing UW, he would make the Huskies an extremely dangerous team from all positions, and I think would make them the favorite to win the Pac-12.

C.J. Wilcox returning to the team was obviously a huge gain as he was the team MVP last year and his return gives the Huskies backcourt depth they haven’t had in recent years. His choice to stay will help the Huskies compete in the Pac-12, but I think Moser is the key now, and if he comes to the Huskies he will help them win the conference and return to the NCAA tournament.

Mar 9, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Washington Huskies guard Scott Suggs (15) shoots against the UCLA Bruins the second half at Alaska Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

In their first round game the six seed Huskies drew the 11 seed Washington State Cougars, who they beat both times they played this season, but only by nine points combined. This being an in-state rivalry game will provide any extra motivation needed for the Huskies, and I think they will be able to come out strong and win this game. Obviously there are no guarantees in college basketball in March, but just for the fun of it, let’s just play along with my scenario and have the Huskies win this game. Their next matchup would be against the number three seed Oregon Ducks. This has not been a good matchup so far this season as the Huskies lost both times they played, but the Ducks have shown vulnerability recently, losing their last two games, both by double digits. Their offense has really been lacking in these two games, averaging about 14 points below their season average, and their defense has been weak as well, averaging over 10 points more than their season average. Both of these factors point to the Huskies having a chance to really test this Oregon Ducks team. Personally, I have seen some good play from the Dawgs recently and I am optimistic about their chances in this game, and I really do think they have a chance to get the win (again, for arguments sake, just play along).

This is what I mean in the sense that the Huskies got a great draw for them. Against the two top seeds in their region Oregon and Cal, they are 1-2, but against the two top seeds in the other half of the bracket, UCLA and Arizona, they are 0-4 on the season. While a 1-2 record isn’t good by any stretch of the imagination, it is a heck of a lot better than 0-4. If the Huskies could beat the Ducks, they would either play the seven seed USC Trojans, the ten seed Utah Utes, or the two seed Cal Golden Bears. Considering Cal has won seven of their last eight games, I would expect them to beat whoever they play in the game to get into the semifinal. This would put matchup Cal and UW in the semifinal. Cal has been on fire recently, as before their loss in their regular season finale against Stanford, they had won seven in a row. This obviously does not bode well for the Dawgs, but I do not think all hope should be lost. The Huskies beat the Golden Bears by 15 points in their only matchup this season. Plus, in Cal’s regular season finale not only did they lose, but they lost by 13 to the eight-seeded Stanford Cardinal at home. While this does not necessarily mean the Bears are done with their winning ways, it does leave a smidge of doubt in the minds of some Cal fans, which as an optimistic Husky fan, is all I need. To get to this game the Huskies would have had win two straight games against solid teams and because the Pac-12 tournament has all games in consecutive days, I think the Huskies could carry that momentum into the Cal game. Obviously this would be a tough game to win, but I think the Huskies have a legitimate chance to pull it out.

If somehow they could win this game and get into the Pac-12 championship game, they would most likely play either UCLA or Arizona, both of whom beat the Huskies in both matchups during the regular season. The Huskies already have a rather slim chance of getting to the conference championship and I don’t really see how they will be able to beat the Bruins or the Wildcats, so sadly I think that is where their conference tournament run would end. The Huskies will not make it into the NCAA tournament as an at-large team so their only chance would be to win the conference tournament. If the Dawgs really do make it to the championship game anything could happen, but the odds are not in their favor to win the game. That being said, the Huskies really have shown signs of life in recent weeks and no matter how the season ends, I am optimistic for next year.

One way to look at it is that this Husky season has been all but lost. This team plays hard every night on the floor, but most times, it has just not been good enough to get the win. With only three games left in the regular season, the Huskies have no chance of getting in the NCAA tournament as an at-large team and in a year with more than a few good teams in the Pac-12, winning the conference tournament is, putting it optimistically, a long shot. So, from this point of view, the answer to my question (what do the Huskies have to play for?) would be not a whole lot. Although this is one perspective, it is not actually the way I personally see it.

Feb 20, 2013; Tucson, AZ, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard/forward Kevin Parrom (3) and Washington Huskies forward Jernard Jarreau (33) guard C.J. Wilcox (23) fight for the rebound during the second half at McKale Center. Arizona beat Washington 70-52. Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

The way I look at things, the last three games the Huskies have are all at home, and are against Washington State, USC, and UCLA. The Cougars are not very good this season, and for that matter neither are the Trojans, despite their greater level of success after the firing of Kevin O’Neill. This means that these could easily be two wins for the Huskies. Never mind could, it SHOULD lead to two wins for the Huskies. At home, against under .500 opponents, even a team as bad as this year’s Husky squad can get these two wins.

If this does play out, the Dawgs would have some momentum going into their regular season finale against the Bruins. Obviously this will be a tough game considering the Bruins are 3^rd in the Pac-12 and squarely in the NCAA tournament, but what college basketball, and the Pac-12 especially, has shown us, is that anything can happen in any given game, especially if the underdog is playing at home. Just say for the sake of argument that the Huskies can somehow pull out this win. That would mean wins in five out of their last six games and some major momentum heading into the Conference Tournament. This would almost certainly put the Huskies into the top eight of the Pac-12 standings which would mean they only have to win three games on a neutral floor to win the Pac-12 tournament and get into the NCAA tournament. In a year where every team in the conference, no matter how good they have looked at times, has shown that they can lose to a much lesser opponent, I don’t see why this can’t happen. Now the only chance the Huskies have of this particular opportunity happening is if they win their last three games of the regular season, which as I just explained, is feasible, but not guaranteed.

I prefer to look at the Husky season in the more positive light, yet with the mystery wrapped in a riddle that is this year’s team, this half prediction, half observation could come to bite me in the butt. Either way, one thing can be certain, the only way to tell how the Husky season will end is to watch these last few games intently, while simply hoping this team can put it together for one final conference tournament run.

Feb 2, 2013, Seattle, WA, USA; Washington Huskies guard C.J. Wilcox (23) shoots against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the second half at Alaska Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Poor shooting aside, there are no excuses for the way the Huskies have come out in games recently. They came out with no energy against USC yesterday, and that resulted in a 19 point deficit at one point in the first half. Their increased sense of urgency in the second half was not enough to climb all the way back, and they took their sixth loss in seven games. There are so many things contributing to these losses. Poor shooting, turnovers, sloppy defense, lack of energy, and more; however the reason why we are losing games is no longer the question. The question has now become: is this basketball season over for the Huskies? Conventional wisdom says no, because the Huskies have dropped to 13-11 (5-6) and ninth in the Pac-12. They do have games left against all three of the big schools in this year’s Pac-12, Arizona, Oregon, and UCLA, but I still don’t think the Huskies would make the NCAA tournament with wins against all of these teams. Considering the fact that the Huskies have seemingly regressed as the season has worn on, I wonder where coach Romar is looking to inspire the team. Conventional wisdom says this season is over. But conventional wisdom could be wrong.

Even though the Huskies have moved under .500 in the Pac-12, if they finish in the top eight of the regular season standings, they will only have to win three straight games in the Pac-12 tournament to get in the big dance. Winning tournament games is all about getting hot at the right time, and if the Huskies can do that, they have as good of a chance as anyone to win the tournament. Plus, with Cal beating Arizona this weekend in Tucson, and with both UCLA and Oregon taking recent losses, it is clear that there is no dominant team in the Pac-12 this season. If C.J. Wilcox can get his shot back, and the whole team can cut down on turnovers and play better defense, there is no reason that this Husky team can’t make a run in the conference tournament. These things are obviously easier said than done, especially with the horrible play of the team recently, but I think with a whole month left, coach Romar can get this team into winning shape. The Huskies may be struggling right now, and it really is a horrible stretch they are on, but I think they have as good a chance as any to salvage the season and potentially win the Pac-12 tournament.

Jan, 26, 2013; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks center Tony Woods (55) shoots the ball against the Washington Huskies at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

What I really think is needed for the Huskies to go on a little bit of a win streak is a sense of urgency. In the losses to Utah and Oregon State, the Huskies just came out flat and this lack of energy put them in a hole early. The Dawgs were never able to climb out of it and this resulted in two tough losses to swallow. The same can be said for the Oregon game, as the Huskies didn’t seem to really wake up until midway through the second half, at which point they were already down double digits. I think that Romar and the Huskies need to treat this next section of games as if they are must wins, because at this point in the season and with the competitiveness of the Pac-12, they really are. If the Huskies come out with energy and a sense of urgency I don’t see any reason why they can’t go on a little bit of a run here and win four or five of their next six games.

This next week will be a good measuring stick for the Huskies to see if they can improve their play as they face both Arizona and Arizona State at home. Arizona has had a terrific season so far, being one of the top ten teams in the nation, and Arizona State just came off a great win against streaking UCLA. If the Huskies could get one win out of these two games that would be a success based on their recent play, but the more important thing is to see improvement out of this group. If the Huskies are to be an NCAA tournament team, they are going to either win the Pac-12 tournament, which looks unlikely because of the strong seasons of Arizona, Oregon, and UCLA, or make it in as an “at-large” team. To do this, the Huskies are going to need to amass some much better conference wins, which is very possible because they still have the both Arizona and UCLA twice more and Oregon once more. Three of these five games are at home, one against each of the three teams. For the Huskies to truly make a run at an NCAA tournament bid, they are most likely going to need to win all three of the home games and potentially one of the away games as well.

While this season has been a wild ride, there has been one player to really provide a boost to the team. Andrew Andrews has been a spark off the bench, but besides his recent play the Huskies haven’t had much to hang their hat on. The Dawgs need to continue playing with energy on the defensive side of the ball, and get the ball moving better offensively so they can get easier points and not have to depend on the shooting of C.J. Wilcox as much. If they do those two things then they will have a chance to compete with the two Arizona schools this week and hopefully go on a little bit of a winning streak.