The Catholic Schools See the Light

This week, the 7 Catholic non-football schools of the Big East got together to discuss their possible departure from the Big East to form their own basketball conference. The Big East has been one of the most powerful and media-hyped basketball conferences in the nation for years. I’ve written here at “The Husky Haul” previously about them getting more hype than they deserve. But, their strategic presence in the major media markets like New York City, New Jersey, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Providence, Chicago, and Milwaukee have made them an attractive conference for ESPN to hype and advertisers to entice.

But, with the disturbing emergence of the mega-conferences, everything has been thrown into disarray. When Boston College, Miami, and Virginia Tech all headed south to the ACC, that was a major blow. With Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Syracuse heading to the ACC as well, plus Rutgers to the Big Ten they have been deprived of nearly all of their most famous and successful football programs. It’s no secret that UConn wants out and so does Cincinnati.

In response, the Big East has desperately scoured Conference USA looking for replacements. South Florida, Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, SMU, and Temple have joined the fray. To keep their football conference intact, they have moved all the way to the Pacific coast with the addition of Boise State and San Diego State in football. East Carolina also doesn’t inspire much excitement as a football-only member.

But, Tulane, the Green Wave of New Orleans appears to have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. Tulane is neither a powerhouse in football or basketball. It brings with it a relatively small media market and they are only a minor component of that market with LSU dominating the state. The Catholic schools, which get most of their revenue from basketball, saw adding schools like Tulane as only depleting their RPI and strength of schedule. It is unlikely ESPN would be that excited about showcasing that Villanova-Tulane game, or Central Florida or SMU for that matter.

But, it goes beyond Tulane. The Green Wave are just a symptom of the bigger issue. If and when UConn jumps ship to the ACC or Atlantic 10 or wherever, who will replace them? What about when Cincinnati joins the Big 12? Will they continue to have to raid Conference USA? Is Rice next? Tulsa? Middle Tennessee State? Will they have to venture into the Missouri Valley Conference or Horizon or Summit League for future members?

The seven Catholic schools have something increasingly rare in this conference realignment armageddon…tradition. They have long established rivalries, common interests, common academic standing, similar student bodies, and similar demographic environments. So, now rather than resign themselves to playing large mediocre state-schools from across the country, they can band together for their interests and quality basketball.

If they can convince a couple of other Catholic non-football schools to join them, they could create an all-Catholic urban league that would have ESPN’s attention in the heart of the basketball season, fans from across the country rooting for the little schools fighting against the behemoths of the mega-conferences, and surely an automatic spot in the NCAA tournament.

Candidates to join them include Xavier, Saint Louis, and Creighton. I could even see Notre Dame rethinking their ACC plans to at least contemplate if this new league might be a good fit. Some have also mentioned Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, but I think those two are better served staying in the nearly all-Catholic West Coast Conference. Not only are their travel concerns and regional rivalries, but the two Catholic conferences could also arrange for a scheduling partnership to expand their influence coast-to-coast.

So, what lessons could the Pac-12 learn from a Catholic-10 Conference?

The first lesson is do not mess with the rivalries and do not dilute the talent pool. There are some that will argue that adding Utah and Colorado has already done that to some degree. The conference grabbed the two best academic, athletic, media market, and demographic  institutions available in the region. There is no one left. The battle that erupted about conference divisions and keeping rivalries intact (especially for access to the Los Angeles market) informed the conference presidents that adding more schools just for the sake of money and media exposure would be a mistake in the long term.

Additional instability that might result from lowering their standards to let in lesser academic institutions from mediocre media markets might result in one or more of the schools to decide that the grass in greener elsewhere. If Boise State and San Diego State can decide that it is worth it to fly across the country to play in the Big East, what would stop a USC or Oregon from seeing dollar signs and greater media exposure in the Big Ten, SEC, or Big 12.

Sound ridiculous?

Again, if mega-conferences no longer see geography as boundaries, even larger mega-conferences become possible. Perhaps in 2020 we will see a 32-team mega-league from coast-to-coast. If you value tradition and rivalries like I do, then the Pac-12 needs to say no to further expansion.

Washington Huskies head coach Lorenzo Romar. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

I don’t know if any of you noticed, but I have been on hiatus recently from Husky Haul. I’ve been off camping on the Olympic Coast, Orca watching in the San Juan Islands, traveling around the west, and otherwise enjoying the summer. But, I am finally back in Arizona and ready to begin a new school year both at the school I teach at and for the University of Washington. Time for me to get back in the saddle and start writing again for Husky Haul! I know Mark has felt the pinch being on his own and it is time to come in for some relief action to come in from the bullpen!

Way back in April, the Husky Haul was the first organization to report on the emerging Husky non-conference schedule. Now that all of the games have been finalized and officially announced, it’s time to take a sneak peak preview of each of the games and make some way-too-early predictions of how they will turn out. Since the Husky roster now seems set for the 2012-13 season, we do not have to wait any longer to see how that could shake out. But, of course position battles will need to be waged and injuries are always a factor. So, predictions can still be hard to make.

In late October, I’ll make my official predictions based on more current information. But, it is always fun to goof around make some assumptions that may or may not end up being accurate. For the record, last year I ended up correctly predicting UW’s regular season record of 21-9, while going 83.3% correct on a game-by-game basis. I also correctly predicted the football team’s regular season record of 7-5, while also going 83.3% (10 of 12) on a game-by-game basis. So, it’ll be interesting to see if I can maintain that level of precision this year.

Part I will focus on the early non-conference schedule in November. Part II will focus on the December portion of the non-conference schedule. Parts III and IV will focus on the Pac-12 portion of the schedule. This preview will contain the team, their 2011-12 record and RPI, plus any news or information of relevance regarding each team.

One thing is obvious when looking at the Huskies’ non-conference schedule this year; all of you fans who have complained over the years about how “easy” Lorenzo Romar’s non-conference scheduling is can not do that this year. This schedule is downright brutal. They have four games away from Alaska Airlines Arena this year, 3-4 potential Top 25 teams, and 2-3 others who could legitimately make the NCAA tournament by being the best in their conference. Oh, did I mention the Huskies have the defending DII champions coming to Hec Ed for their exhibition? Even the practice games are not easy.

10/24- Western Washington Vikings

The defending Division II champion WWU Vikings are coming on down from Bellingham in a way too early game for the Huskies. They will only have been in camp for less than two weeks and most certainly will not have worked out all of the offensive and defensive schemes. This is certainly the type of game that could turn out to be a public relations nightmare (much like Seattle Pacific’s upset of Arizona was last year), if not an RPI killer. But, since the Huskies have no incoming freshmen and only one new eligible player (Mark McLaughlin), one has to think that everyone will be much more comfortable picking up Romar’s defensive schemes. This could be a trap game, but luckily it is just an exhibition. UW 90 WWU 84

11/11- Loyola (Md) Greyhounds  (2011-12 record 24-9, RPI 78)

The Greyhounds made the NCAA tournament last year after an impressive season, rounded out by winning the Metro Athletic Conference title and then losing to Ohio State. The Baltimore-based team will be playing it’s second game of the season when they play the Huskies, following a home game against Binghamton two days earlier. Given the quick travel time and the fact that they are bringing in five freshmen to replace some of their core talent from last year, this appears to be an big win opportunity for the Huskies. The most significant new player to the roster is Canadian Damion Rashford, who attended the acclaimed Westwind Prep last year. UW 94 Loyola 77

11/13- Albany Great Danes (2011-12 record 19-15, RPI 212)- The Great Danes do not appear to pose much of a challenge for the Huskies. Last year they were led by 6’4″ Dominican Republic guard Gerardo Suero who averaged 21.5 ppg for the Danes. Despite having a year of eligibility left, Suero decided to enter the NBA draft, where he went unselected. So, not only did the Danes lose their best player, but Suero lost his chance for a big senior year. In additon, three other players from the squad transferred including Ben Dickinson, Omar Richards, and Chris Longoria. Perhaps their biggest threat for next year will be senior guard Jacob Iati, who after several seasons deep on the bench erupted into a prolific scorer late last year, scoring over 20 points three times in the final few games. But, Albany’s defense is porous and it should be a plus 100 night for the Huskies. UW 101 Albany 78

11/17- Seton Hall Pirates at Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT  (2011-12 record 21-13, RPI 68)- Following a couple of gimme games, the Huskies make the first of their two trips to Connecticut to play in the Hall-of-Fame Tip-off Classic. Rather than play at Springfield, MA where the Hall of Fame actually is, the tournament has decided there is more money to be made at the mega-casino in rural Connecticut. Seton Hall finished in the middle of the Big East last year with an 8-10 conference record. They were a competitive team, but not dominant, missing the NCAA tournament despite the conference sending nine teams. They have lost their top two scorers from last season, which means their highest returning scorer will be 6’6″ junior wing Fuquan Edwin at 12.5 ppg. He is also the only returning player to have averaged over 30 minutes per game. Although sophomore guard Aaron Cosby averaged 29.5 minutes, while scoring 7.5 ppg. The Pirates also lost their only significant rebounder from last year, so they will need some of the reserves and freshmen to take up the slack under the boards. Seton Hall again appears to be destined for a mid-conference finish and the Huskies should be able to win this game if they play well. But, the Huskies do not have a long history of performing well in neutral site games over the years, so a loss is certainly possible. UW 78 Seton Hall 73

11/18- Ohio State Buckeyes at Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT (2011-12 record 31-8, RPI 7)

or Rhode Island Rams at Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT (2011-12 record 7-24, RPI 256)

Obviously it is difficult to predict which of these games it will be. A win over Seton Hall, coupled with an expected Ohio State win over Rhode Island would result in a matchup with the Buckeyes. In that scenario, it would seem the Final Four attendees from last year would easily dispatch the Huskies. On the other hand, a loss to Seton Hall could match them up with the Rams, who were dismal last year and probably won’t be much better this year. Thus, in that scenario, the Huskies should win. Either way, I see a 1-1 finish for the weekend in Connecticut.

11/24- Colorado State Rams (2011-12 record 20-12, RPI 29)- Colorado State had a solid season last year, competing well in the Mountain West and finishing with a solid RPI. They lost to Murray State in the first round of the NCAA tournament, but their strong season was enough to get Tim Miles a nice salary boost with a job offer to go to Nebraska. But, Colorado State did not drop off in the coaching department by bringing in proven winner Larry Eustacy to replace him. The Rams return all of their top 5 scorers from last season including Wes Eikmeier (15.5 ppg), Dorian Green (13.1 ppg), Greg Smith (9.4 ppg). They also return their leading rebounder in Pierce Hornung. Fans in Fort Collins are also excited about the in-coming class Eustacy is brining in including David Cohn from Chicago and Canadian Joe DeCiman. This looks like it could be a real challenge game for the Huskies and an upset at Hec Ed is certainly possible. Colorado State 81 UW 78

11/28- Saint Louis Billikens (2011-12 record 26-8, RPI 31)- Last year the unexpectedly talented Billikens blew the Huskies out in Saint Louis on what was supposed to be Scott Suggs’ homecoming game. But, Suggs was injured and thus he has a chance to be part of exacting revenge in Seattle. This time around, Saint Louis will be without last year’s leading scorer Brian Conklin. But, just about every other significant player returns including 2nd leading scorer Kwamain Mitchell, 3rd leading scorer Cody Ellis, and 4th leading scorer and leading rebounder Dwayne Evans. Many people are pegging the Billikens to be even better than last year’s NCAA 3rd round team. In addition, you can always expect Rick Majerus teams to be well coached. Nonetheless, you have to think that the revenge factor and the home crowd will play a role in helping the Huskies play better than they did last year. Perhaps we will see Scott Suggs go off and drop 20? I am going for the Husky upset against what could be a Top 25 team at that time. UW 77 Saint Louis 75

So, as the calender turns from the early non-conference schedule of November to the late non-conference schedule of December, I predict the Huskies will be 4-2 going into December. Next up will be the December preview.

Last week, I contacted the Pac-12 Networks in San Francisco on behalf of Husky Haul with some questions regarding to access and availability for Pac-12 fans to see games via the Pac-12 Network either through cable or internet. Kirk Reynolds, Vice-President for Communications for the Pac-12 Network, then contacted me agreeing to answer some questions. Despite the very busy time in his schedule, working hard to set up studios and offices and preparing for the August 15th launch, Kirk Reynolds was kind enough to take some time out of his schedule to answer some questions for us.

Jeff Taylor: Thank you so much Kirk for taking the time to answer questions about the Pac-12 Network for the readers of Husky Haul and Washington fans in general. So, let me ask you my first question. On your FAQ sheet, you list your current provider partners as Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Cox, Bright House Networks. For the millions of us who have a subscriber other than those four networks, will there be any other option available for us to watch Pac-12 games in the near term or long term?

Kirk Reynolds: Yes. We are working hard on securing agreements with many more service providers – big and small.  DirecTV, DISH, Charter, AT&T Uverse are frequently brought up by fans, but we are also working on the smaller service providers within the footprint. We will certainly announce those deals as they happen, but also encourage fans to continue to contact their providers to let them know they want the Pac-12 Networks. Those calls and emails do make a difference.

Jeff Taylor: If you live outside of the Pac-12 footprint (say in New Jersey), will there be the possibility to get one of the regional networks or an al a
carte package with cable or online to allow you to view only the games of university you graduated from?

Kirk Reynolds: In order to get the Pac-12 Networks you do need to be a subscriber to one of our distribution partners. We do not have a la carte options. Subscribers outside of the footprint would likely get the national network through a sports tier and would have access to all of the regionals on your computer, tablet, smartphone through your provider’s TV Everywhere service.

Jeff Taylor: I live in Arizona, but am a Washington fan. Can I get access just to the Washington regional network via cable or internet?

Kirk Reynolds: Yes, as long as you are a subscriber to one of our partners (we will be adding more to the original four) you would have to the other regionals through your provider’s TV Everywhere service. It should be noted that there will be 350 events carried across all seven networks simultaneously, including (with a few exceptions) all football and men’s basketball games. So, as a Husky fan you will get all of the football and men’s basketball games no matter where you live, as long as you are a subscriber to the Pac-12 Networks.

Jeff Taylor: Many people, like myself, have given up traditional TV/cable and gone to internet-only media in which we watch all games, shows, and movies online using media like Netflix and Hulu. If we have an internet provider (like Suddenlink for me), that does not agree to be a partner, what recourse do we have (other than sending them an email, as I already have)?

Kirk Reynolds: Aside from continuing to pressure your service provider to carry the Pac-12 Networks, you would have to switch to a provider who does have the networks.

Jeff Taylor: Has the Pac-12 Network considered the possibility of having a stand-alone subscriber service where fans could pay a subscription fee and
get an individual login to watch games online?

Side note: I know I’d certainly be willing to spend $10/month or $100/year to be able to watch every University of Washington football and basketball
game online.

Kirk Reynolds: This question has come up quite a bit, but a la carte is simply not an option. You do have to subscribe to one of the distribution partners to get the networks.

Jeff Taylor: I travel a lot, so I am constantly getting onto many different internet providers via wifi. Will there be options available for people to get onto
the Pac-12 Network no matter where they are?

Kirk Reynolds: Absolutely. The TV Everywhere service that the distribution partners provide will allow fans to access the games on their computers, tablets and smartphones. So, if you are on a business trip you would be able to watch Pac-12 Networks programming on your connected devices.

Designated Media Markets of the Western U.S.

Jeff Taylor: I know there are millions of Pac-12 fans outside of the Pac-12 footprint, as well as, many that live overseas either in the military or as civilian workers. When I lived in Italy for 4-years, I would have to use pirated services like justin.tv to watch games. Does the Pac-12 network have any long-term plans to increase access for those fans outside of the footprint?

Kirk Reynolds: Definitely. We understand that many Pac-12 alums and fans are overseas and we want to reach as many as we can. Plus, Commissioner Scott launched a globalization initiative last year to better showcase our schools internationally and the Pac-12 Networks will play a significant role in those efforts. There are regulation hurdles to clear when securing distribution in international markets so those take a little more time, but they are part of the plan.

Jeff Taylor: I have just a couple of more questions regarding the Pac-12 Networks distribution. These are specific to the regional channels. Where will the boundaries be located between the Bay Area and Los Angeles channels and will all of the state of California be covered by at least one of them?

Kirk Reynolds: Fresno will get Bay Area and Bakersfield will get Los Angeles.

Jeff Taylor: Is San Diego included in the Los Angeles region?

Kirk Reynolds:  San Diego will get the Los Angeles regional as well.

Jeff Taylor: Will there be overlap of adjoining states, particularly with the regional channels? For instance, will Las Vegas be included in the Los Angeles or Arizona region? Will Wyoming, parts of Nevada, and parts of New Mexico be included in the Mountain Region? Will Idaho be included as part
of Washington or Oregon or Mountain (especially the part near Spokane?).

Kirk Reynolds: This is still a bit fluid, but the general rule is it will be divided by DMA. So, if you live in Washington, but are considered part of the Portland DMA (get the Portland stations) you will likely get the Oregon regional. Some areas, like Las Vegas, will get the national network. Once again, it should be noted that 350 events will be carried across all seven networks, including the football and men’s basketball games.

Jeff Taylor: Will Hawaii or Alaska be included?

Kirk Reynolds: Absolutely. We are trying to reach as many fans as we can and there are certainly a lot of them in Hawaii and Alaska, not to mention many families of Pac-12 student-athletes who live in those areas.

Jeff Taylor: Thanks again for taking time out of your very busy schedule to answer some questions for the Husky Haul. I realize you must be really swamped right now with preparing for the August 15th launch. I know I for one are excited about this opportunity and hope that my provider will get on board!

On August 15th, the new Pac-12 Networks will launch. Yesterday, guest blogger Porter Olsen detailed a few of the options and limitations for Pac-12 fans in regards to the new network. One of the big questions is whether this network will really be available to most fans. As stated yesterday, the Pac-12 is using a unique approach of splitting up into seven different channels.  There will be one national channel available anywhere in the United States on the four cable networks that the conference has negotiated deals with; Time Warner Cable, Cox Cable, Comcast, and Brighthouse. Then, there will be six regional channels that will be available to residents in each of those regions who have cable through one of those providers. Those six regional channels are Washington, Oregon, Bay Area, Los Angeles, Arizona, and Mountain.

What is not exactly clear at this moment are the boundaries for the two California-based channels, as well as, the Mountain channel. Will residents in Nevada, New Mexico, or Wyoming have access to the Mountain channel? Will Idaho, especially the panhandle close to Spokane and Pullman be included as part of the Washington region? Will Las Vegas be included as part of Los Angeles or Arizona? Will residents in Alaska and Hawaii be included?

I have some of these questions out to Pac-12 Network officials and hope to have answer to you soon. They have told me they will definitely get back to me with some of these answers; which I assume are actually still in flux as negotiations with cable providers continue. One thing is clear, there remains a tug-of-war between the network and DirecTV and Dish Network to provide national coverage of the conference. While DirecTV may ultimately agree to provide the national feed, it appears as though the opportunity to get the regional networks is slim. Recently DirecTV CEO Michael White was quoted as saying: “We’re not going to have seven channels — I can assure you of that.”

So, it looks like if you are a Husky fan living in North Carolina, or anywhere else outside of the state of Washington, you will be stuck with only watching a handful of games on the national feed and only if you happen to be a subscriber to one of the networks that has an agreement. Coverage on the national network would be split roughly 12-ways, although it could become even less if the Los Angeles schools begin to dominate it.

Oh course, you will be able to catch the occasional games on other networks including increased coverage of the Pac-12 by ESPN, including games on ABC, as well as, games on FOX, FX, and Fox Sports Net. So, it isn’t as if the Pac-12 football and basketball games will be entirely unavailable to fans around the country. The Pac-12 didn’t sign a record $3 billion TV deal for nothing. But, if you really want to make sure you get a chance to see every Husky game this year, then the Pac-12 Network will be the perfect filler for the other deals.

But, in regards to gaining access to the Pac-12 network, there are still many issues to be worked out. For Arizona residents, like myself, which is well within the footprint of the conference, access is going to be quite slim. Within the entire state of 6.5 million residents, only Cox Cable has signed up among all of this state’s available cable and internet providers (outside of Time Warner in Yuma).

All of this got me thinking. Just how many people are going to get the Pac-12 Network and how many will be left out in the cold. Here are the statistics we know about right now:

Cox Cable: 2.9 digital cable subscribers and 3.5 million internet subscribers nationwide.

Within Pac-12 Footprint

Arizona: Cox Cable is available in the Phoenix metro area and the Tucson Metro, plus some smaller southern Arizona cities.

California: Orange County, San Diego, and Santa Barbara

Time Warner Cable: 8.8 million cable and internet subscribers nationwide.

Within Pac-12 Footprint

Arizona: Yuma

California: Los Angeles, Inland Empire, San Diego, and most cities of the Mojave Desert.

Colorado: The small cities Gunnison and Telluride

Washington/Idaho: Pullman, Moscow, and Coure D’Alene

Comcast Cable: 22.9 million cable subscribers and 16.7 million internet users.

Within Pac-12 Footprint

Washington: Most of Western Washington and Spokane

Oregon: Portland and the Willamette Valley

California: Metro Bay Area, Metro Sacramento, Central Valley

Utah: Metro Salt Lake City

Colorado: Metro Denver and Front Range

New Mexico: Most of the population centers

Bright House Networks: 2 million subcribers

Within Pac-12 Footprint:

California: Bakersfield

All together, this adds up to approximately 37.2 million subscribers who will have access to the Pac-12 Network nationwide. The four largest cable providers within the Pac-12 footprint not signed up include; Charter Communications with 4.7 million subscribers (with major footprints in Eastern Washington, Southern and Eastern Oregon, Metro Reno, and Central California). Cable Vision has about 3.5 million subscribers of which 300,000 are in the Mountain West in and around Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, and Utah. Suddenlink offers services to 1.8 million subscribers, including Northern Arizona. CableOne has about 1 million subscribers including parts of Arizona and Idaho. In addition, Wave Broadband and cable offers service to 325,000 customers in Western Washington, Oregon, the Bay Area, and Sacramento.

Fans in Southern Oregon may be saved at the last minute though, as Kevin Allen, spokesman for Charter Communications stated ”Charter is in active discussions with the Pac-12, but has not reached agreeable terms.” Knowing how these things go, that deal will probably get done. On the other hand, my provider Suddenlink sent me this email:

“Dear Jeff Taylor, 

Thank you for your email. I appreciate the opportunity to assist you today. 
At this time we do not have any plans to offer this service. 
Thank you for choosing Suddenlink”

But, the elephants in the room are DirecTV and Dish Network. DirecTV has 19.9 million subscribers nationwide and Dish Network has 14.4 million subscribers. AT&T’s Uverse has 3.8 million subscribers, while Verizon’s FiOS has an additional 3.8 million subscribers. So, all told, there are approximately 53.2 million cable and internet subscribers nationwide who will not have access to the Pac-12 Network, not counting the countless smaller companies out there. Even within the Pac-12 footprint, there are number smaller cities who will not have any form of access, as well as, those thousands of subscribers to the above companies within the major cities of the West Coast.

So, what are we to do if we are denied access to the Pac-12 Network and our favorite teams?

Gary Stevenson, CEO of Pac-12 Enterprises was quoted as saying: ”Your options for watching the games if you don’t have Pac-12 Networks are to become a customer of one of the affiliates that do. We’re working hard on new affiliate agreements. … We continue to work hard to make that happen.”

But, what if there are not available options for someone like myself that lives in Flagstaff, AZ where none of the cable networks available are on board and even the national networks like DirecTV and Dish are not either? Will there be an ability to log one specifically to the Pac-12 Network online?

“If your cable or satellite company doesn’t carry the network, you cannot subscribe online only to the Pac-12 Network. That may come eventually, but not this fall.”

Soon I will have additional information up from my interview with Kirk Reynolds, Vice President of Communications for the Pac-12 Network. He should be able to provide a little more clarity on all of these issues. But, for now it remains a waiting game as we wait and see what the Pac-12 network is able to negotiate to give greater access to its fans around the country.

When I first heard about the Pac-12 Network being formed, I was so excited! I have moved around quite a bit in my life, including living in Italy for 4 years, and have always had to get my Husky fix via various pirated internet streams including most recently the good graces of those who supply games on justin.tv and other similar sites. But, with the Pac-12 network coming, the opportunity was there to allow Husky fans anywhere in the world to see the University of Washington and the other 11 conference members on the TV via cable/satellite providers or streaming live over the internet. I was more than willing to pay a personal subcription fee, perhaps $10/month to have something legitimate and reliable.

When it was announced that you could go to the Pac-12 Network webpage and enter your zip code and service provider and get information about the availability of the network, I was disappointed to see that my provider Suddenlink Communications was not listed. So, I went ahead and clicked on the link that would “Send a Request”.

But, I did more than that. I took to Twitter demanding Suddenlink offer the network with the hashtag #Iwantpac12networks

My internet provider in Arizona, @suddenlink won’t show Pac-12 network! Blasphemy!#IWantPac12Networks

— Jeff Taylor (@huskylenz) July 5, 2012

Then, I went ahead and I emailed Suddenlink asking whether they would be offering it at some time in the future. Here is their response:

“Dear Jeff Taylor,
Thank you for your email. I appreciate the opportunity to assist you today.  At this time we do not have any plans to offer this service.  Thank you for choosing Suddenlink.”

But, all of this frustration makes me wonder; how many other Pac-12 fans are getting the big middle finger and will STILL be unable to get the Pac-12 Network and watch the games they want to watch. Take the poll below.

Of the tens of millions of people within the Pac-12 footprint of California, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah, what percentage of the potential fanbase will be left out in the cold? How many thousands or millions of Pac-12 fans are there in the rest of the country or living overseas will be unable to watch their favorite team? That is certainly something I will be investigating in the near future and will give you the best estimate I can soon.

In addition, I will soon have up an interview with the Pac-12 Vice President for Communications Kirk Reynolds and the Pac-12′s plans for offering services to more fans around the country and around the world. 

Washington Huskies guard Scott Suggs. The Cardinal defeated the Huskies 58-56. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE

Last week, I analyzed and ranked the Husky Men’s Basketball roster from #14 to #8. Today, I look at who I believe to be the seven most important players on the team. I thought I would recieve a lot of negative feedback regarding my placing of Mark McLaughlin at #8. But, instead most of it focused on Hikeem Stewart and the thoughts that he will be much better, especially on defense, than we may suspect. Several said he may be like another Venoy Overton, minus the “off court issues”, who is a solid and pesky defender brought in to bother the opposing point guard. Others say his awkwardness on offense was not typical of his play in high school and given a more definitive role on the team will give him a chance to show us what he’s got. For the sake of the Huskies, I definitely hope that is all true.

Anyways, let’s move onto the Top 7 on the roster in this analysis series. There are many different ways you could argue about the “value” of a player. You could look at it based on who scores the most points, who has the best overall statistics, who plays the most minutes, who has the best plus/minus ratio, and so forth. For this feature, I decided to use this criterion; If a player suffered a season-ending injury in the pre-season, which player would have the greatest impact on the team’s overall win/loss record through their absence.

While this is clearly a subjective measure, it is the offseason, so there is plenty of room for being subjective. So, let’s go ahead and look at the rankings and see if you agree.

#7 Andrew Andrews (PG)- The Huskies obviously need someone who can handle the ball and be a leader at the point guard position to spell Abdul Gaddy, especially if he were to suffer an injury. Gaddy averaged more than 34 minutes per game last year and in some games logged close to 40. The Huskies need a capable backup to give Gaddy a break. There are two primary backup point guards on the roster; Hikeem Stewart and Andrew Andrews. For some reason, the Oregon 5A player of the year decided well before the season began to redshirt last year, while Stewart did not. Many people felt going in that Andrews would have been a part of the rotation, while Stewart should have been the one to redshirt. But, I do suspect that Andrews saw Wroten coming in and knew he’d have a better chance to step right in and play a major role after Wroten moved on. Most people who have seen Andrews play say he will be the kind of player you can’t keep off the floor. He is not just a PG, since he can also score (averaging 24 ppg at Benson Tech) and he could turn out to be a very good compliment to a three guard line up with CJ Wilcox, Scott Suggs, and Mark McLaughlin in various up-tempo combinations.

#6 Shawn Kemp Jr. (PF)- The son of the Sonics legend was a bit underwhelming last year. Granted, he had been away from organized basketball for two years while he got his academic situation in order, so he had a lot of work to do just to get back into basketball shape and learning Romar’s system on both offense and defense. Kemp was mostly ineffective in spelling Aziz N’Diaye and often was removed from games for Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. But, he did show glimpses of his potential, especially later in the season. Romar recently stated that Kemp was now fully in-shape and gaining enough confidence that he may be ready to become a real contributor. We know the guy can produce spectacular highlight dunks and is a decent rebounder. We also need Kemp to be reliable on offense and improve his free throw shooting. For the Huskies’ sake he needs to be solid, since without Aziz, the frontline will be woefully thin.

#5 Scott Suggs (SG)- The 5th year senior is back for his last hurrah. After injuring his foot last fall, he was expected to be back with the Huskies by December. When his recovery went a little slower than hoped, he decided to sit it out completely (especially given the plethora of guards on the roster). With Ross and Wroten off to the NBA, there certainly will be opportunities for Suggs to shine. He has had lots of time to work on his game (in practice late in the season). Let’s hope his ball handling has improved, because during the few times he was asked to play the point in his junior year (after Gaddy went down), he wasn’t able to handle it. But, we all know the guy can shoot! He plays good defense, although his lateral movement could use work and he has the ability to get inside to rebound. Suggs could be a difference maker to this team if he plays up to his potential. Putting him on the floor at the same time with CJ Wilcox could really extend teams since either can launch it from long distance, opening things up nicely for the bigs or for drives to the basket.

Washington Huskies forward Desmond Simmons. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

#4 Desmond Simmons (PF)- Simmons was a real enforcer up front for most of the season, providing critical rebounding and defense. Everyone loves his hustle and heart. He loves to get to the floor to save that loose ball or cause a held ball. But, he seemed to hit a freshman wall late last year, losing much of his effectiveness near the end of the season. But, that can happen to the best of them. Simmons has the chance to work on improving his offensive skills this off season. If Desmond can become more of a scorer, with a solid mid-range jumper, and more comfort under the rum, he could become a 10 ppg player. This would make the Huskies diverse and effective offensively by stretching defenses.

#3 CJ Wilcox (SG)- This is a guy that has a chance to become the first Husky to average more than 20 ppg since Christian Welp in 1987. Wilcox struggled through all of last season with a concussion, then a fractured femur that eventually became a bum hip. He was not able to practice most of the season, only coming in on game day, and then his minutes were often limited. Despite all of this, CJ was still able to average 14 ppg and was absolutely critical to helping the Huskies win the conference title and advance to the Final Four of the NIT. Assuming Wilcox is completely healthy, and knowing he will be much more focal to the offense with Ross and Wroten gone, CJ has a chance to really explode. If CJ Wilcox can expand his game by being more of a risk to drive inside, and possibly to dish it outside to Suggs or McLaughlin, teams will need to back off of him a bit, which would allow him even more open looks from 3-point land.

In terms of NBA potential, CJ Wilcox would rank #1 on the team. But, there are two others on this team whose absence would be even more detrimental to the team for two primary reasons. The first is the lack of similar and experienced backup players who can fill their roles and second, they play two of the hardest to replicate roles on the team; big center and starting point guard. At least Wilcox has suitable backups in Suggs and McLaughlin. I am not sure you can say that about the other two positions with certainty at this point.

#2 Aziz N’Diaye (C)- Aziz has shown himself to be almost irreplaceble. Perhaps some of that is due to the players brought in (or not brought in) by Lorenzo Romar to give him help or back him up. But, also as the famous saying goes “You can’t teach height”. Simply put, there just are not that many 7’0″ tall, muscular, and quick players built like Aziz. N’Diaye is critical to the defensive schemes of this team because his mere presence disrupts opposing offenses. He is a strong rebounder, good shot blocker, and can even score some points, mostly through putbacks. What Aziz needs to improve to really become a factor is to improve his touch under the basket and develop a better post move. With defenses extending out so much to cover the long distance shooters the Huskies have, Aziz needs to be a threat inside to keep defenses honest. He also needs to learn to just use his size and athleticism to just dunk the ball rather than do cutsy moves under the hoop. Aziz also needs to learn to be more selective on his choice of fouls, as when he gets into foul trouble his effectiveness on defense is greatly diminished. Lastly, he has got to improve that 38% free throw shooting average. At the rate he shot them last year, if he could just raise that average to 60% (still not great), he would average more than 1 ppg more, which could make the difference between one or two more wins for the team.

#1 Abdul Gaddy (PG)- Abdul Gaddy came to the University of Washington as the #2 rated PG in the country. He has mostly failed to live up to all of the hype. His freshman season was downright disappointing. His sophomore season showed promise before it ended prematurely with a torn ACL. Last year, we began to see a better and more confident Gaddy, who averaged 34 minutes per game, while showing improving leadership and stability. But, he was not a serious offensive threat in most games, and defensively he often struggled to keep quicker guards in front of him. While he was not a 5-star PG, he was exactly what the team needed to counter the role Wroten played. At the very least, Gaddy needs to perform at least as well as he did last year. But, Gaddy could become even more important to the team if he could become more of a threat from outside. This could also improve his opportunities to get into the lane driving and his ability to pass out to the wings or down low to the bigs. Percy Allen reports that Gaddy has looked terrific in the summer league. He reported that Gaddy appeared to be working on very specific parts of his game, rather than just playing the role of the straight point guard. Gaddy has been scoring at will, dropping three’s, and working on his drive moves. The only worry I have are the reports that he struggled to keep Anrio Adams in front of him (which is something Gaddy struggled with last year). But, overall, I think these reports could mean a very big year for Gaddy and the Huskies and maybe even a spot in the NBA draft.

Washington Huskies forward Jon Brockman and forward Quincy Pondexter both should have been Pac-10 Player of the Year in their senior season. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-US PRESSWIRE

Whenever people discuss who the most valuable player on a team (or in a league) is, there is often wide-ranging disagreement about how you define such an award. Do you give it to the player who is the best overall player? The one who scores the most or has the best overall statistics? The one the team relies on the most for  leadership, or perhaps the +/- statistics when they are on the floor? What about what impact having that player gone with an injury would have on the ability of the team to win games?

When Jerome Randle beat out Quincy Pondexter in 2010 (a record 5-time Pac-10 Player of the Week winner), people asked what exactly is the definition of such an award, if the weekly winner doesn’t win it for the year. Obviously the NBA didn’t see it that way since Pondexter was an NBA 1st round draft pick, while Randle went undrafted. Pondexter was a better scorer and rebounder. But, Randle was the point guard, and if he went missing, the impact on the Golden Bears would have arguably been a bigger loss than to the Huskies. People also rationalized it by saying, well, it goes to the “best player on the best team”. But, if that is the criterion, then why didn’t Jon Brockman win it in 2009 when the Huskies won their first outright conference championship in 54 years?

Then, last year, Terrence Ross averaged 16 ppg on the conference champion Huskies and they ended up giving the Player of the Year award to California’s Jorge Gutierrez instead despite the fact that he didn’t even rank in the Top 6 in any statistical category. If anyone needs to ask who the NBA thinks is the best player, then just look at Ross being drafted #8 in the NBA Draft and Guitierrez going completely undrafted (like Randle). So, apparently that best team saying only applies when the Huskies don’t win the title.

The problem with this kind of analysis is that even in basketball, with its small number of players, the differences in the size and abilities of players makes it difficult to compare them to each other. How do you compare the contributions of a 5’9″ point guard and a 6’6″ small forward? How about a 7’0″ center? Some shoot from long distance while others score from inside. Some play great defense, while others are rebounders.

You could analyze it by looking at the +/- data. The plus/minus analyzes simply how many points the team scores versus gives up when each player is on the floor and when they are on the bench. Some players who are perceived to be very important can often have a net minus (the team is outscored when they are on the floor), while other players who may not put up tremendous statistics have a net positive. The reasons may have to do with these player’s contribution to defense or their role in helping others score on offense. It can also include the intangibles such as saving loose balls or setting great screens. It could be issues of leadership and chemistry. But, since that data does not appear to be available (although rumors have it that Romar keeps it internally), we have to use a slightly different and more subjective level of analysis.

So, perhaps we need to look at it from another angle, one that is more subjective, but still important. Perhaps the MVP is not the player who is “the best”, or who scores the most, or who has the best NBA potential, but rather which player when missing has the greatest impact on the team’s ability to win games. Thus, in my countdown of ranking the 2012-13 Husky men’s basketball roster, I am going to use this as my question; If a player were to suffer a season ending injury prior to the beginning of the season, what impact would their loss have on the win/loss record at the end of the season.

Today I am looking at players ranked #14 to #8 on the roster, while in my next post, I’ll examine players ranked #7 to #1 in terms of their significance to the team.

#14 Gilles Dierickx (C)- This 7’0″ center the transfer from Florida International will have to sit out this year. The Belgian did not put up impressive stats as a freshman (2.6 ppg). He is not a traditional banger, opting instead to play more of a finesse game, with a decent mid-range jumper. He’ll likely benefit from a redshirt year to work on his game, learn Romar’s system, and beef up a bit. He will still be a valuable practice player though. He could be the long-term replacement for Aziz when he graduates.

#13 Jernard Jarreau (SF)- The 6’10″ small forward redshirted last year. As a guard early in high school who simply outgrew that position, there is much for him to learn about how to play under the hoop. He is said to be a decent outside shooter, but he definitely needs to bulk up to be effective rebounding and playing defense. We really are not sure what to expect from him because we have not really seen a player like Jarreau before. While this ranking may end up being dead wrong come February (and I hope I am ), if he were to go out with an injury the Huskies would not be affected from the stand point of their normal style of play.

Washington Huskies guard Hikeem Stewart. Washington defeated Washington State 75-65. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

#12 Hikeem Stewart (PG)- As the third backup point guard behind Gaddy and Andrews, I just do not see Stewart getting a lot of minutes. In his rare opportunities last year on the floor, he seemed very uncomfortable. Gaddy will average more than 30 minutes per game again and Andrews is said to be the kind of player you can not keep off the floor. There are many people who are very high on Stewart and say he will surprise some people. Perhaps that is true, but when you look at a team with as much depth in the guard position as the Huskies have, it is hard to imagine there being enough minutes for Stewart to play a major role. In fact, it might not even hurt him to redshirt this year.

#11 Perris Blackwell (PF)- Wait a minute. How can a player who is redshirting be ranked ahead of two players who will actually be playing? When that player is a 6’9″ power forward with three years of previous experience playing the likes of Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, that’s when. Perris Blackwell has a chance to come right in as a leader on this team in practice, as well as, to be an effective teacher and practice player for Aziz, Bruenig, and Kemp to learn from and get better going again.

#10 Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (PF)- ASJ was a much needed addition when he arrived on the team in late January. Romar was desperately trying to find someone to help Aziz N’Diaye up front and neither Martin Bruenig or Shawn Kemp Jr. could seem to do the job. But, he was raw, often confused on the offensive side of the ball, and made some critical defensive errors from time to time. But, we completely accepted that because he made up for it with his brute strength and desire to win. What we can not count on for next year is having him back. He seems like a sure-fire NFL tight end and Steve Sarkisian may advise him to focus solely on football for his own good at the end of the season. If he returns, awesome for Husky fans. If not, we’ll all understand and hope that the other forwards have improved enough to make up for it.

#9 Martin Bruenig (SF)- The German combo forward had a pretty disappointing season last year. While he has the size and skills to be a very good weapon for Romar next year, he seemed confused on defense and uncomfortable on offense. If Bruenig can get the hang of the defense and offer Romar some depth up front, especially from a rebounding stand point, he could go a long way toward taking the Huskies to the NCAA tournament. A break out season for him could mean very big things for the Huskies. But, if he repeats what we saw last year, the Huskies will more or less be where they were at last year. No big loss. So, it seems there can only be upside here.

#8 Mark McLaughlin (SG)- I know this will be a controversial ranking, given that McLaughlin was the nation’s leading JC scorer last year at TCC and some say he may end up being good enough to enter the NBA draft next year. There are those who say he’ll be a starter by the end of the season. But, the reason I placed him here was a big-picture kind of thing. Remember, this is a ranking of who would have the biggest impact on the win/loss column if they were lost to injury in the pre-season. The Huskies have two shooting guards (CJ Wilcox and Scott Suggs) who are experienced upperclassmen who have started for Lorenzo Romar and know his system quite well. They are extremely good outside shooters, have length and athleticism, play solid defense, and can together take up all of the minutes in this position if necessary. At the point guard position, we know Gaddy can play 35+ minutes per game if need be and they seem to have an effective backup in Andrew Andrews. McLaughlin has jumped around quite a bit in his career, so honestly we do not know what to expect from him. Will he be the kind of player Romar simply can not keep off the court? Or, will he be a role player trying to find his minutes? Only time will tell on this one. But, we’ve seen what this team looks like with Gaddy, Wilcox, and Suggs and what it looks like when they go missing due to injury. We don’t have that answer with McLaughlin yet…

Washington Huskies guard C.J. Wilcox. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

In Part I of the series, we examined which seniors on the roster have the best chance of being taken in the 2013 NBA draft. In Part II, we examine the underclassmen who have the best chance of making the jump early for the 2013 draft or will likely be taken in the 2014 draft if they decided to stay.

Beyond the seniors, there are a couple of other players who seem like conceivable NBA draft picks. The most obvious choice is CJ Wilcox. The super-smooth long distance shooter has the height (6’5″) and tools necessary to be successful in the NBA. In fact, to me he is the most natural fit for the NBA of any of the current players or signed recruits the Huskies have. Wilcox managed to average 14 ppg despite playing the entire season with a variety of injuries (most notably a stress fracture in his femur that also caused it to migrate to his hip that limited his practice time and minutes on the floor). It also didn’t help that he suffered a serious concussion against Saint Louis. Romar even alluded to the fact that Wilcox might have even been a 20 ppg player had he been healthy, even with the competition for touches with Ross and Wroten.

If CJ Wilcox is healthy all next year, he could really explode onto the national scene. The Huskies lost two big time scorers early to the draft this year in Terrence Ross and Tony Wroten, and CJ Wilcox is most obviously the one on the roster who will be counted on to pick up the slack (along with Scott Suggs and Mark McLaughlin). If CJ Wilcox were to average something close to 20 ppg and get the national headlines, I think the NBA draft could come calling. He is currently projected for 2013 to go #31 at NBADraft.com and #38 by DraftExpress.com, which is early in the 2nd round. A bigtime season could easily move him into the late 1st round.

But, there is talk from people close to the situation that CJ’s dad doesn’t want him to go into the draft early. Apparently, Craig Wilcox has really emphasized the importance of earning a degree and developing all the parts of his game that need to be improved. If CJ starts rising up to the level where GM’s are telling him he is a lottery pick, the thinking may change. But, it would not seem prudent to leave early if he were going to go in the 2nd round, since those contracts are not guaranteed. Thus, it is certainly not a sure fire thing that Wilcox will give up his final year of eligibility to chase the NBA dream.

One part of the decision making process that could come into play, much as it did for Isaiah Thomas, is simply how the roster will potentially affect his prospects at improving his stock during his final year. When Isaiah Thomas decided to leave Montlake, there were some obvious reasons. He was THE MAN during his junior season. But, with Tony Wroten coming in, plus the return of Abdul Gaddy, plus Terrance Ross, CJ Wilcox, and thinking Scott Suggs were all coming back, the guard position looked so stacked that you could only reasonably assume that his minutes and role on the team would change and his influence may diminish. It wouldn’t be that Thomas still wouldn’t have been a critical part of the team, but his best opportunity to shine might have past him. Would CJ Wilcox make that same decision if faced with an in-coming class that included players like Nigel Williams-Goss and potentially the likes of an Aaron Gordon, Jabari Brown, and/or Jabari Bird? Those players will/would want the ball in their hands and that would ultimately affect CJ’s opportunities. It will be interesting to see how that all plays out.

Seattle Redhawks guard Mark McLaughlin during the 2k Sports Classic. Maryland beat Seattle 105-76. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-US PRESSWIRE

Then there is the big wildcard in all of this, and that is JC transfer Mark McLaughlin. The former Rivals 4-star recruit certainly took the long road to Montlake. But, he was a 4-star recruit for a reason, averaging 21.3 ppg at Inglemoor HS. Then, last year he was the nation’s leading junior college scorer at Tacoma Community College at 28.4 ppg. So, all indications are that the 6’6″ McLaughlin can fill it up. Whether his skill set will translate well in the more competitive Pac-12 remains to be seen. But, he was considered good enough that he committed to Washington State in 2007, before switching his commitment to Nevada. But, after coach Fox left Reno for Georgia, McLaughlin then switched again to Baylor of the Big 12 after going to a prep school. But, then he decided to back out of that commitment right before the season and went to Seattle U when it went Division I. But, after just 17 games he left the Redhawks and transferred to TCC.

One issue you have to consider, like with Isaiah Thomas’, is that he is a bit on the older side. McLaughlin is already 22 years old and has two years of eligibility remaining. With the NBA always so focused on potential and youth, potentially entering the league at 24 is a little on the old side. If McLaughlin has another big year, perhaps even scoring nearly 20 ppg, he might just find himself on the NBA draft radar. At 6’6″ he certainly has the size they are looking for from a shooting guard.

Whether he will have the same effectiveness on a team with plenty of established guards remains to be seen. He did only score 7.2 ppg in 17 minutes at Seattle U. He obviously picked it up at TCC. But, it is a quite the question mark of what he will do at UW. It is one thing when you are “The Man”. It can be quite different when the ball is in the hands of the starting PG (Abdul Gaddy) much of the time and if it does get passed to CJ Wilcox or Scott Suggs, it is probably going up from 3-point range. There are quite a few players  who will want the ball in their hands.

However, given the long road McLaughlin has traveled, if he starts showing up on NBA mock draft boards and starts hearing from GMs about his potential, he might just make the leap. I don’t think we can necessarily count on having him for two seasons. While I don’t necessarily think he would base his decision directly on what CJ Wilcox decides, clearly what they decide will have an impact on the other. If CJ decided to stay for an additional year, then McLaughlin’s opportunities to score might be reduced (and vice versa), especially considering who might join the team in 2013. But, if CJ declared for the draft, then McLaughlin could return for a second season much more in a leadership role and with more of a focus on him as a scorer.

Of the remaining underclassmen, there are not too many others on the roster who appear to be in a position to declare for the NBA draft in 2013 (or even 2014). Shawn Kemp Jr. might be a potential candidate for 2014 if he showed a big improvement this year and then came on for a monster 2013-14 season. I say this given his more advanced age and desire to move on to the next level. But, as of right now I do not see him as NBA material. But, you never know what kind of improvement we might see.

Perris Blackwell might be a 2014 candidate given his size and skill set. But, I do not know enough about him yet to make an informed judgement. I’ve only seen him play on TV once. Desmond Simmons seems like a real 4 year guy to me, so even if he were to start getting recognized, I figure he would be more likely in 2015. Then there is the one commitment for 2013 that we need to consider and that is Nigel Williams-Goss. Despite his obvious skills at the PG position and the real expectations that he will take over the starting PG position from Abdul Gaddy as a freshman, Williams-Goss does not appear to be the type of player both in terms of size, skill set, and attitude to be One-and-Done. Even if he were a can’t miss NBA prospect like a Jabari Parker or Aaron Gordon, the fact that he was deciding between UW and Harvard says to me that he will stick around for at least a substantial portion of his education before making the leap.

As for others, yes there are known one-and-done recruits UW is going after, such as the aforementioned Parker and Gordon. But, it isn’t worth talking about them until they sign their LOI somewhere. So, looking at who is currently at Washington and who has given their commitment so far, if you were to ask me who the next Husky player to enter the NBA will be, I would have to say the most likely one is Aziz N’Diaye. I think C.J. Wilcox has the best chance to be the highest draft pick of the mix. But, since we know Aziz will be in THIS draft and Wilcox might just wait until 2014, that is what I am going for.

My prediction is that the next Husky in the NBA will be Aziz N’Diaye!

But, while the future is bright, I think we might have to accept that no Huskies may be drafted in 2013, for only the 2nd time in 10 years.

Terrence Ross (Washington) is introduced as the number eight overall pick to the Toronto Raptors. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

This is part I of a two part series looking at the next set of Husky basketball players who have a chance to join the long line of Husky greats taken in the NBA draft. Part I will focus on the incoming seniors, while Part II will look at the underclassmen possibilities…

On Thursday night, the Washington Huskies saw two players taken in the first round of the NBA draft. Terrence Ross was taken at #8 by the Toronto Raptors, while Tony Wroten was taken at the #25 spot by the Memphis Grizzlies. This is the first time in Husky history that two players on the team were taken in the 1st round. It is still amazing to me that a team with two first round caliber players missed out on the NCAA tournament. But, that’s a discussion for a different day. Lorenzo Romar has certainly been able to maintain a pretty good stream of players being taken in the NBA draft.

Since the 2004-05 season, Romar he has seen nine of his players selected in the NBA draft. And usually there is at least one every year. Let’s take a look at his track record.

In 2005, Nate Robinson was taken in the 1st round with the 21st pick.

In 2006, Brandon Roy was taken in the 1st round with the #6 pick, while Bobby Jones was taken in the 2nd round with the 47th pick. Will Conroy went undrafted, but has played on various 10-day contracts in the NBA while bouncing around the D-League and international leagues.

In 2007, Spencer Hawes was taken with the 10th pick of the 1st round.

In 2008, no one selected.

In 2009, Jon Brockman was taken in the 2nd round of the NBA draft with the 38th pick overall. In addition, while undrafted, Justin Dentmon was able to make his way up through a couple international leagues and the D-league into the NBA on a few short-term contracts.

In 2010, Quincy Pondexter was taken with the 26th pick of the 1st round.

In 2011, Isaiah Thomas was taken with the 60th and last pick of the NBA draft.

So, 9 players have been taken in the last 8 drafts and only in one of those years no players were selected. That is a pretty good track record for potential recruits to look at. Everyone talks about how John Calipari has a track record of getting players to the NBA. But, really, does anyone really believe that these 5-star one-and-done prima donas wouldn’t have gotten to the NBA without Calipari’s help? But, with Romar a number of his players were 4-year players who really did need the time to “develop”.

Thus, it leads us to the inevitable discussion of who will be the next Husky great to get the call from the NBA. There are essentially two questions to ask here. First, are there any players on  the current roster who look like definite NBA talent for the 2013 draft? And second, will Romar get any of the one-and-done players in the 2013 recruiting class that would enter the draft in 2014?

First, let’s examine the current roster. In this article, I am focusing on the three seniors on the roster who will definitely be hoping that the NBA comes calling next summer. In Part II, I will examine the underclassmen to see who else might be possibilities to be drafted in 2013 or 2014.

Washington Huskies guard Abdul Gaddy. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

When you look at the seniors on the roster, you have Abdul Gaddy, Scott Suggs, and Aziz N’Diaye. Since this is their final year of eligibility, each of them will hope to get the call to the NBA next year. It is their last chance to shine, to show improvement on the things they need to work on, and wow the scouts with their athleticism, potential, leadership. Last, but not least, they must demonstrate that they are winners. This is a season of unknowns in 2012-13. Will this team with arguably less talent be able to get to the NCAA tournament, while the team with two first round picks could not? Getting to the Big Dance will likely depend on whether these three seniors have the kind of season that will also get them into the NBA draft.

Let’s start with the team’s starting point guard Abdul Gaddy. Gaddy has been somewhat of an enigma for Husky fans since he arrived. Gaddy was a highly touted 5-star recruit, rated the #2 point guard in the nation out of high school. He originally committed to Arizona for Lute Olsen. But, once Olsen decided to retire, he decided to stay closer to home. Many figured he would be a one-and-done type player, except that that wasn’t an option since he was too young to enter the draft. In fact, he was the youngest player in all of Division I in the country that year.

But, after a pretty disappointing freshman season, many people chalked it up to age (he was only 17) and inexperience. Gaddy did show some improvement during his sophomore year until he suffered that torn ACL early in the year that knocked him out of the rest of the season. Gaddy came back last year as the starting PG and played more minutes than any other Husky player. He was reliable and durable and definitely started to grow into the position. With a roster full of high fliers, but with no obvious leaders, you could see him grow more and more into that role of elder statesman as the season wore on.

Gaddy seemed comfortable as a play-maker, but definitely lacked much of the necessary explosiveness to be an effective scorer. He improved his outside shooting, but seemed to struggle taking defenders off the dribble or defending quicker guards. It will be interesting to see if he can finally blossom into the 5-star recruit that he was hyped as 3 years ago. This is his last chance to show NBA scouts that he has a future in the league. Currently, he has gone from a sure-fire NBA prospect to missing from the Mock Boards of both DraftExpress.com and NBADraft.com. He will definitely need to show the same level of reliability, improved leadership, and improved scoring ability to get himself back on the board.

Cal State Northridge Matadors guard tries a hook shot over Washington Huskies center Aziz N'Diaye

Aziz N’Diaye is another senior with a shot at an NBA career. In fact, his chances of playing in the league may be even better than Gaddy’s. While Aziz clearly has his limitations on the offensive end, his size and athleticism is definitely something that NBA scouts are looking for. As the old saying goes “you can’t teach height”. But, it goes beyond that. He is so strong and muscular, that he is very difficult to move out of the post and his ability to run the floor will be very effective in breaking up fast breaks and getting down the floor for rebounds on the offensive side. He could still use some improvement on his footwork, but his athleticism gives him the ability to recover when out of position to disrupt opponent’s shots.

While shooting 38% from the free throw line is not very encouraging, his ability to take up space on the defensive end and intimidate guards who drive into the lane could prove quite useful at the next level. His solid minutes on a team without much front line depth last year helped relieve some of the injury concerns by NBA scouts, but his propensity to foul too much has to keep them concerned. Hopefully Aziz will be able to stay out of foul trouble this year, he will improve somewhat on his post play and offensive skills, and he will be able to continue to show his durability. Currently, NBADraft.com has him as the #56 player taken, which is late in the 2nd round. But, DraftExpress.com does not have him on the board. If undrafted, I do think Aziz might be able to carve out a niche in the NBA as an undrafted free agent.

Scott Suggs is someone who is not really being talked about right now in the NBA draft. After redshirting last season, it is difficult to really know what we are going to get from him. After the former Mr. Basketball from Missouri arrived at UW, he had a disappointing freshman season (which many people, including me, felt he should have redshirted), an improved sophomore year, and a promising junior year. While he is certainly a good shooter from outside and a solid defender, his ability to dribble and run the offense need work. He needs to take on more of a leadership role next year, and needs to be a threat to drive to the basket with his tall athletic frame and ability to pass out of traffic. A lot of people are excited to see what he will look like in this 5th year. He could potentially have a real breakout season with the absence of obvious scorers ahead of him like Ross and Wroten. He biggest competition for touches and shots will come from CJ Wilcox. But, being more featured on offense could give him a chance to shine. But, I don’t believe that even a big time season would get him into the NBA draft . I think he could have a chance to make it someday, but it would likely similar to the route taken by Dentmon and Conroy via the D-League. Or, more likely he’ll carve out a nice little career overseas.

So, of the current crop of seniors, I see Aziz N’Diaye as the most likely to be drafted. Tomorrow, I’ll look at who else might make it among the rest of the roster.

Washington Huskies running back Chris Polk (1) runs away from the Cougs. Washington defeated Washington State 38-21. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

There is an argument that Chris Polk is the greatest running back, in a long line of great running backs, in the history of the University of Washington. His 4,049 rushing yards, ranked 2nd all time in Husky history, just barely behind Napoleon Kaufman’s 4,106. This is despite the fact that Kaufman played in 44 games as a Husky while Polk played in just 40 games. Polk also holds the school record for yards per game (101.2 ypg), 100 yard games (21), and is tied with Kaufman and Greg Lewis as the only Huskies with three consecutive 1000 yard seasons. In 2011, Polk finished 2nd all-time in total yards with 1,488 yards, behind the ridiculous 1,695 yards put up by Corey Dillon in 1996. Despite the shock of Chris Polk going undrafted in the NFL draft, after being projected as a 2nd round pick, many observers expect Polk to earn a major role with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Whether Chris Polk is the greatest running back in the history of the Huskies (against such competition as Kaufman, Greg Lewis, Cory Dillon, and Hugh Mcelhenny) is a great matter of debate. But, what can not be debated is that it will be a tough act to follow for whoever wins the job in 2012. Who wins this job and how well they do will go a long way toward determining the success of the Husky season. Keith Price suffered from injuries all season long last year, but one thing that kept him going was the ability of Chris Polk to take on much of the load. The best way to keep Price on the field this year will be to have an effective running back. Will Polk’s replacement be able to have the durability and productivity to help keep Price healthy and open up his options for passing down field?

Let’s look at the options;

Jesse Callier is many ways can be viewed as the heir to the position. The junior-to-be has a total of 84 carriers for 693 yards in his career. He also has 25 receptions for 153 yards. While Callier was lightly used due to the production of Chris Polk, after being in Steve Sarkisian’s system for the past two years, he seems to have the most experience to step into that role. However, Callier will definitely have his work cut out for himself to beat back a challenge from up-and-coming sophomore Bishop Sankey.

Washington Huskies running back Bishop Sankey (25) is brought down by Southern California Trojans linebacker Shane Horton (23) during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

Bishop Sankey shocked Pacific Northwest football fans when the 4-star recruit pulled out of his commitment with Washington State to come over to Seattle. Some thought he ought to have redshirted last year since Polk and Callier would take up all the carries. But, Sarkisian saw that Sankey was too good to keep off the field and played him as a true freshman, both on special teams and occasionally on the offense. Sankey showed some glimpses of brilliance, ultimately ending up with 28 carries for 187 yards. His best game came against Colorado when he ran for 71 yards on just 8 carries.

In spring ball, Steve Sarkisian said that Callier and Sankey were very close on the depth chart, calling them 1A and 1B. It seems most likely at this point that one of those two will get the majority of the carries, but it is also possible that Sarkisian will go into the season rotating both of them in to see who is more effective. But, if neither is able to show much effectiveness, there are some additional options in the backfield.

The biggest question mark for Husky fans is the health and conditioning of Deontae Cooper. The highly touted 4-star redshirt sophomore has yet to play a down for the Huskies after not once, but twice tearing his ACL. Steve Sarkisian has indicated that he is working Cooper along slowly to make sure he can come back completely healthy. Cooper may not be ready to contribute right away, given his rehab schedule and the fact he has been out of football for over two years. So, even if his knee is 100%, conditioning may still take some time. But, if Cooper can get back up to his potential, the sky could still be the limit.

I expect to see Cooper get limited carries and maybe mostly work on special teams to begin with. But, if either Callier or Sankey are injured or ineffective, you might start seeing Cooper moved into the rotation. Then, it is just a matter of time to see where he fits in.

Washington Huskies running back Jesse Callier (24) rushes against Colorado Buffaloes defensive end Chidera Uzo-Diribe (9) and Colorado Buffaloes defensive back Anthony Perkins (7) during the first quarter at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE

Then there are the wildcards. The Huskies have two freshmen RB who were rated 2-stars by Scout; incoming freshman Erich Wilson and redshirt freshman Dezden Petty. In addition, they have JC transfer Antavius Sims, who was also rated 2-stars out of high school. While 2-star recruits may not inspire excitement among the fans, the ratings system is not always entirely accurate. Steve Sarkisian obviously saw something in each of them to be willing to bring them in.

With the depth on the roster (6 running backs), it would seem that true freshman Erich Wilson is most likely to redshirt. The others who are not part of the regular rotation will almost certainly be heavily involved on special teams, with one of them likely earning a punt or kick off return spot.

But, there is also the fact that the running back position is wide open right now. If any of these six players were to come into fall camp and show themselves to be the ONE who needs to be on the field, that opportunity is there for them to take it.

Replacing a player like Chris Polk is almost impossible. But, Steve Sarkisian does appear to have restocked the stables with a number of players with great potential. The key question is whether any of them will be able to play at this level we have come to expect.

However, it seems like at least initially, the most likely scenario is to start with a “running back by committee” approach. I usually cringe at the idea of play by committee. Often this results in a number of players running in for a few ineffective plays, without any of them being able to get into the flow of the game. I want depth and getting players time on the field and better preparation, but I worry if there is not one focal point to the offense that all of them may become ineffective. In addition, it is important to Keith Price for him to have confidence in his backs. He needs to know that the player he hands the ball too will hold onto it. He needs to know the player behind him will have his back and protect him from sacks and open up holes in the line to run through when he has to scramble.

Ultimately though, the question I posited in the title is “Who will be the next great Husky running back?”. Looking at the six currently on the roster, I believe the answer to that question is Bishop Sankey. Whether he will be able to win the outright starting spot over Jesse Callier out of fall camp remains to be seen. But, based on what I saw out of each of them last year, Sankey looks to me to have the most potential. I see Sankey eventually getting more touches as the season moves on and then grabbing a stranglehold on the spot during his junior year. But, running back is a very difficult position to predict and if someone else wins the job, I would not be shocked to see it. What do you think?

Nick Montana's career as UW starting QB lasted just one game. Mandatory Credit: Jim Z. Rider-US PRESSWIRE

When Keith Price does eventually move on to the NFL, the question in this game of survival at quarterback is who will stay at Montlake for the duration and who will go the way of Ronnie Fouch and Nick Montana? Because only one quarterback can play at a time, there is often a matter of luck involved in whether you will get a chance to play. Will the QB ahead of you get injured? Will the QB ahead of you leave early for the NFL? Will a new coach reopen the QB competition and give you the chance the previous coach didn’t? Do you have other skills that makes you useful to the team?

Let’s examine each of the backup QB’s and address whether some of these factors could improve their chances of getting on the field and/or needing to transfer.

When Derrick Brown committed to UW, many people also heard about his talent as a punter. Some people speculated that maybe he might find his niche there, while being the backup QB to Keith Price. Some fans even fantasized about the idea of having a true QB back there punting who could keep defenses guessing on every punt (especially those near mid-field) that instead there would be a pass for a touchdown or a run for a first down. But, the Huskies have since brought in punter Korey Durkee from Gig Harbor for 2012 and kicker Cameron Van Winkle from Mount Si has committed for 2013 (who is apparently a very good punter as well). Thus, Brown’s opportunities for that spot seem greatly diminished, barring injury.

As I mentioned in Part I of the series, Cyler Miles is a dual-threat quarterback with a tremendous ability to run or throw. These skills could make him useful as a true freshman both on special teams and on offense. If he were on the field at the same time as Keith Price, he could be useful on reverses or out wide as a receiver, who could also throw downfield. He might also be used in the Wildcat formation. Miles might be able to follow in the footsteps of Isaiah Stanback and Eric Bjornsen, who were both recruited as QB’s to UW, but ultimately found jobs in the NFL as a wide receiver and tight end respectively. Often when these athletic dual-threat QB’s are being recruited, they really desire to play QB, even when the coaches see them being more effective at another position instead. Sometimes these athletes narrow their college choices based on which coach promises to keep them at the QB position, while others base their decisions more on the qualities of the program or location rather than the position projections. What Steve Sarkisian will choose to do with Miles is pure speculation at this point. But, if he has as much talent and athleticism as the reports say, he may find his route to the next level is actually at another position instead.

Jeff Lindquist is projected as more of a true pro-style QB. While Sarkisian has shown an ability to be somewhat flexible in working his offense to the skill set of the players he has, he has stated multiple times that what he would prefer from a quarterback is a tradition pro-style QB with an accurate and strong arm. Lindquist’s running ability is more limited than Miles, but he may fit Sarkisian’s offensive schemes better. If he is truly as good as most think he will be, he seems to be the heir apparent to take over the starting role from Keith Price. It seems unlikely, especially if he redshirts in 2012, that Lindquist would lose his chance to start and have to transfer when the time comes.

Who will stand on the sideline with Coach Sarkisian? Mandatory Credit: Jim Z. Rider-US PRESSWIRE

Then there is 2013 recruit Troy Williams. Steve Sarkisian knew that he didn’t have to sign a QB for this class, since he has three freshman already in the fold already. So, he had the option of being more selective in his recruiting. He only targeted some of the top QB’s in the nation. Sarkisian did lose Skyline’s Max Browne to USC (#1 QB in the nation) and Salt Lake City’s Cooper Bateman committed to Alabama after Doug Nussmeier left Montlake for Tuscaloosa. But, both were not huge surprises given the depth UW has at that position and the better opportunities those two have to play immediately at the other two schools.

Steve Sarkisian then decided to just focus his attention on one other QB, that of Narbonne, CA in Troy Williams. Ranked the #14 QB in the nation by Scout, Williams, like Price, is a little small for an NFL level QB being on 6’0″ and 168 lbs. But, Williams has an extremely accurate arm. And, also like Cyler Miles, is a dual-threat, with great mobility. Thus, even if he has to wait a little while to earn his starting role, he could find time on the field in other capacities.

Looking at this potential logjam at the QB position, the Huskies certainly have the good problem of a quantity of riches. But, it seems really unlikely that four QBs all within two years of each other will all be able to fit in and would be willing to wait their turn. Quarterbacks rated 4-star and in the Top 20 in the country are not going to a university to sit on the bench and hold a clipboard. So, while all of them will have the confidence that they can win the competition, not all of them will be able to do so. At some point, one or more of them will want to get their chance to shine and if it is not at UW, it’ll be somewhere.

Those who have the ability to contribute in other ways may be willing to stick it out. With the talent that Cyler Miles and Troy Williams bring, it seems like they will find a role in Sarkisian’s system, even if they are not starting QB’s to begin with. So, when examining who would be most likely to transfer, it comes to talented, but more limited QB’s like Derrick Brown and Jeff Lindquist. If Lindquist does redshirt in 2012, it will certainly limit his transfer options, and Brown has already done so. Often QB’s in this situation transfer to FCS or Division II schools because they do not have to sit out an addition year and can play right away. But, doesn’t it seem unlikely that a player ranked #8 in the country like Lindquist could end up at a Portland State or Central Washington?

Derrick Brown on the other hand was ranked #46 in the nation by Scout and was stated as having some issues with accuracy, despite his good footwork and mobility. To me, he would seem the most likely odd-man out. But, the key to this decision for him and the others is whether Keith Price were to enter the NFL draft after 2012 or return for the 2013 season. If Keith Price entered the NFL draft after this season, then there will be a wide-open free-for-all QB competition between Brown, Lindquist, Miles, and Williams for the starting role in 2013. In that scenario, I could imagine all four of them sticking around trying to win that competition, because players at this level have enough confidence to believe they can. Although, if after spring camp (Troy Williams says he will graduate early so he can be in spring ball next year), one of them ends up far down the depth chart, they may choose to transfer in during the summer.

But, if Price decides to stay for 2013, then the decision by one of them to transfer could come sooner because they would see yet another year sitting on the bench for sure. I hate to see someone leave UW, but the QB position is a very difficult situation when you have too many talented quarterbacks on the roster. But, it certainly is a good problem for Husky fans and coach Steve Sarkisian to have!

Of course, there is one other scenario that is just as plausible as anything else I wrote on here. All five of the quarterbacks on the roster may love Seattle and the University of Washington so much that they are willing to stick it out and be proud of being Huskies no matter what happens with their spot on the depth chart. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how this competition develops…

Thus, discussion turned to another player who might be available, Alex Schrempf. The former Bellevue High School standout and son of Husky legend and NBA/Sonics All-star Detlef Schrempf, originally walked on at UCLA, but after two seasons there decided to transfer to UW. That led to rampant speculation that he might walk-on at UW as well. But, with a roster already bulging at 15 players last year, it seemed logical that he might take a year off to adjust and focus on studies.

Now, however, the roster is much thinner with the loss of Terrance Ross and Tony Wroten, Wegner focusing his efforts on school, and the scholarship going unfilled. So, perhaps there might be a niche for the 6’5″ 220 lb small forward would still have two years of eligibility if he wished to walk-on. With people wondering what his plans were, I decided to reach out to him to see what his plans were. Here is what he had to say:

@huskylenz no sir. I definitely considered it but I stopped playing to pursue other interests. Still play all the time though!

— Alex Schrempf (@Skriiimp) June 23, 2012

So, it looks like we can count out Alex Schrempf as someone who could come in and help fill the depth on the roster. But, at least we can end that speculation and focus on the roster that is already in place. Would be nice if we had a little more depth up front though, wouldn’t it?

By the way, I have a tweet out to Austin Sefarian-Jenkins seeing if he can clarify his basketball plans. When I hear more, I’ll let you know.

UCLA Bruins forward Alex Schrempf on the bench as UCLA celebrates. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

Washington Huskies quarterback Keith Price (17) passes against the Southern California Trojans. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

In January of this year, Nick Montana transferred out of the University of Washington after one redshirt season and after serving as Keith Price’s backup last year, earning one disastrous start against Oregon State when Price was injured. A recruit with so much promise left so early because he saw a sophomore Keith Price in front of him on the depth chart and realized he might be sitting on the bench for the next two years before only getting his chance to be the starter in his final season of eligibility. Because he had already used up his redshirt season, Montana would have to sit out another year if he transferred to another FBS school. So, Montana decided to transfer to Mount San Antonio College in California, where after playing one season there, he could transfer to a school where he has a chance to earn the starting role for his final two seasons of NCAA eligibility.

So is the life as a college quarterback, where under normal circumstances there is only one player in that position on field at one time and if you are not the starter, you will not play. No other position, other than walk-on kicker or punter, is that situation so particularly true. Most FBS schools attempt to recruit one scholarship quarterback per year and usually have four QB’s on scholarship at any one time. Most teams try to have their quarterbacks staggered, so that when the starters graduate or get injured, there is a veteran backup ready to take over. In addition, you usually want your freshmen redshirting so they can learn the system while not using one of their years of eligibility.

A similar thing happened with Ronnie Fouch. He sat behind Jake Locker, until Locker’s broken thumb. Then, he started most of the disasterous 2008 season before returning to the bench for Locker’s junior season. Fouch then transferred to FCS Indiana State following the 2009 season upon recognition he would again sit on the bench again after Jake Locker announced he was not entering the NFL draft that year. Had Fouch stayed at UW, he would still have had to compete with Keith Price in his final season of eligibility for the starting job.

At many schools who properly stagger their QBs, the quarterbacks work their way into the starting role, often starting for two years at a time. In fact, if you look at the long and illustrious history of quarterbacks at UW, most of them started two years before heading to the NFL. But, what ultimately happens when a young (freshman or sophomore) QB earn the starting role, as Keith Price did as a sophomore, is that everyone under them realizes they will have a long wait and they may never even get the chance to start a college football game. Will the same thing happen to one of the potentially five QB’s on the Husky roster next year that happened to Montana did this past winter?

Going into the 2012 season, the Huskies will have four scholarship quarterbacks. Keith Price is a redshirt junior. Derrick Brown is a redshirt freshman. Jeff Lindquist and Cyler Miles will be true freshmen. The assumption most people make is that Derrick Brown will be the primary backup to Price this year, given that he has already used his redshirt and has more experience in Steve Sarkisian’s system than the two incoming freshmen. But, most people also believe that highly touted Jeff Lindquist (4-stars and #8 in the nation by Scout) is likely the heir apparent to the starting job when Keith Price eventually leaves for the NFL. Looking ahead, it would make sense that Steve Sarkisian would try and save Lindquist’s eligibility by redshirting him in 2012. But, if Lindquist is far-and-away a better backup than Derrick Brown in the fall and Price were to suffer an injury early enough in the season, Sarkisian could potentially decide to put him in if he felt it was giving the team the best shot at a successful season.

Jeff Lindquist during the Semper Fidelis All-American Bowl high school football game. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

Then there is dynamic and athletic Cyler Miles. While local folks talk about Lindquist, the Colorado product was also rated 4-stars and ended up deciding between UW and USC. That’s some heady company and he would not have had a USC offer unless he could really play. It is certainly conceivable that Miles could beat out both Brown and Lindquist for the backup job. What is also conceivable is that Miles is probably less likely than Lindquist to redshirt because of his incredible athleticism. He is a dual-threat QB who could give Sarkisian some incredible play-calling options on the field if he were inserted as a WR or tailback on certain plays. He could be used in the “Wildcat” formation or slotted out wide, with defenses needing to respect his ability to catch, run, or throw. He could also be very useful on special teams, possibly even returning punts or kicks. Also, if he played next year and Lindquist redshirted, it would stagger the QB’s in terms of eligibility a bit better than they are currently.

If this scenario does indeed occur, with Brown as the primary backup, Miles used on special teams and special situations on offense, and Lindquist redshirts, then there would appear to be stability at the QB spot for the next year. The bigger question is what happens in 2013. There is the question about whether Keith Price will still be in Seattle when highly touted Troy Williams arrives in Montlake from Narbonne, CA. If Keith Price stays at UW for his final season, then the Huskies would potentially have five QB’s under scholarship at the same time. That is a lot. While Price’s record-breaking season last year (despite injuries) had people talking NFL, there is no guarantee that even another season like that would get him into the high rounds of the NFL draft. NFL scouts have worried about his size (a little short and skinny for most of their tastes) and his apparent proclivity for injury. He may need to put together two successful and injury free seasons to convince NFL teams to take a chance on him, despite his proven on-field success.

If Price were to leave after 2012, then there would certainly be a wide-open battle for the starting spot between Brown, Lindquist, and Miles, with the winner of the spot potentially being the starter in Montlake for the next 2-3 seasons (barring injury). But, the two losers of that battle would certainly need to start thinking about their options. Are they willing to stand on the sidelines with a clipboard for the rest of their career? If Price stays for 2013, then the problem is exacerbated even further with the arrival of Troy Williams. That log jam would make it unlikely that all four players would be willing to wait it out for the long term. The question is, who would be most likely to transfer? Obviously this is a matter of pure speculation. But, speculation is one thing I am quite good at. So, in Part II, I’ll examine the possibilities and come up with what I think is the most likely scenario.

I asked French forward William Howard this weekend if he knew anything about Mam Jaiteh’s plans. Howard informed me that Mouhammadou Jaiteh will not be coming to play college ball in America. That isn’t a huge shock, since I reported earlier last week that @ChristopheEPcom of European Prospects tweeted this below.

The chances of seeing Mam Jaiteh go to College next season are slim despite visits at Gonzaga and Washington. Will most likely go pro.

— EuropeanProspects (@ChristopheEPcom) June 5, 2012

But, in following up with his friend William Howard from INSEP and the French National Team, why Mam Jaiteh would come to visit UW and Gonzaga and then decide not to come to the Pacific Northwest to play college ball, Howard told me that Jaiteh would need to finish his high school diploma this summer with an extremely high grade to gain eligibility and/or have to attend a prep school. Rather than focus his energies on trying to gain eligibility and possibly waste a year at a prep school to do so, he would rather turn pro in France and focus his attention on basketball.

The website, Slipper Still Fits, speculates that Jaiteh also soured on the idea that he would need to redshirt at either Gonzaga or UW and he simply did not want to sit out a year either way.

But, perhaps it isn’t all that bad of a situation that Jaiteh won’t be playing at Montlake. Draft Express NBA had this to say about Mam Jaiteh:

One of the more physically gifted big men in attendance, especially considering he turned 16 just a few months ago, Mouhammadou Jaiteh (or Mam Jaiteh) is not a particularly skilled player, but regardless has considerable upside to continue to improve down the road. Standing 6-9, but already sporting a NBA caliber frame despite his young age, Jaiteh is a mobile center with good hands and solid athleticism.

Offensively, Jaiteh is extremely limited, as he possesses very little footwork, average touch around the basket and is unable to pass out of double teams. Regardless of where he catches the ball on the floor, he’s always looking to make a move, which renders him fairly turnover prone, particularly once opponents caught onto this fact. He lacks significant experience and fundamentals on this end as you can probably imagine, though, particularly in team defensive settings where he doesn’t show a great feel for rotating and wasn’t much of a shot-blocking threat despite his physical tools.

So, based on this evaluation, perhaps he is not what the Huskies need. The Huskies have already had big men like this in the past and they just do not fit well with Romar’s style of play. The Huskies do not need a project at this point. They need a big man who can fit right into the scheme and contribute right away. They already have three projects right now in Shawn Kemp Jr., Martin Bruenig, and Jerrard Jarreau to work with. By the time Jaiteh would be ready to contribute, one would hope that one or all three of the guys already on the roster would be ready too. Plus, the Huskies have a veteran in Perris Blackwell and the possibility of picking up a 4 or 5 star big man recruit for the class of 2013.

But, we can now officially close the door on the French Connection and we can move onto planning for the 2012 season with the roster we have, since Perris Blackwell will be sitting out and coming in for the 2013-14 season as a veteran presence to replace Aziz N’Diaye and help stabilize what could be an interesting mix of veterans and all-star freshmen.

So, the Huskies appear to have their roster set for 2012 and will likely save that last scholarship for the big 2013 class. That is, unless the Huskies are able to pull someone out of the blue, for instance an unknown from Europe at the last instant. But, based on last year’s experiences, Romar may not want to go that route with a project player who may not pan out. Romar desperately scoured the country (heck the world) for a big man last year and ended up with Shawn Kemp Jr. and Martin Bruenig. Not that these two won’t ultimately end up being really good players. But, given the known lack of depth up front at the time and Romar’s need to fill it, these two did not end up making the big difference in their freshman year, despite ample opportunities we all hoped for. In the end, it was a football player who was not even recruited to play college basketball who took on the roll of the front line enforcer by the name of Austin Sefarian-Jenkins who got more minutes and made more of an impact than either Kemp or Bruenig.

Despite the fact that it seems pretty much certain that this last scholarship will remain unfilled, there has always been one big wild card that could both make-or-break the 2012-13 season, but will also impact the recruiting class of 2013. That wild card is what happens with Perris Blackwell. The University of San Francisco transfer has one year of eligibility left. If he could somehow manage to earn his degree by the end of the summer from USF, then he would be eligible to play for UW this  upcoming season. If that were the case, then he would have a chance to be a real impact player to play alongside or substitute in for Aziz N’Diaye. He would definitely help solve the depth issue up front for the upcoming season.

The added bonus if Blackwell were to play next year, would be to free up the scholarship he is occupying for the 2013 recruiting class. As of now, the Huskies have three scholarships available for 2013 (with the graduation of Gaddy, N’Diaye, and Suggs). One of those scholarships is currently slated for Nigel Williams-Goss who committed to the Huskies on May 30th. That would leave two slots open to cover a massive recruiting class of 4 and 5-star players including familiar names like Jabari Parker, Jabari Bird, Aaron Gordon, Issac Hamilton, Marcus Lee, Kyle Washington, Elliot Pitts, Goodluck Okonoboh, Jordan Bell, Chance Murray, Zach LaVine (probably UCLA), and the Robinson twins (probably on football scholarships).

Of course, not all of these players will want to come to UW and even if they did, the competition for playing time with players at this level, and with the egos of kids today, would mean that many wouldn’t come as soon as another at their same position committed. But, it sure would be nice if Romar could land 3 or 4 of these players and build a completely balanced team, rather than one just focused on guards.

But, assuming Romar does not use this last scholarship, it would be available for 2013, allowing him to fill three more spots beyond Williams-Goss. If Blackwell were to play in 2012, then his scholarship would also open up, allowing Romar to fill four more spots in 2013. One has to think that having a pass-first point guard already in the fold would be a huge incentive for some of these other players to choose UW.

But, will Blackwell fill our need for front-court depth in 2012 or will he be one of our one-and-done players of 2013 to fill in after Aziz graduates?

I became very intrigued with this question when I saw the following tweet:

@wvcknights I’m coming up July 18th

— PerrisBlackwell (@PerrisBwell0) June 1, 2012

It is always dangerous to read too much into a tweet. Did Blackwell mean he is moving up on July 18th or just “coming up” for a visit? If he were to mean moving, it would seem unlikely that Blackwell would plan on moving up to UW on July 18th if he were taking classes at USF in an attempt to graduate in time to play this season. So, I tweeted him and asked him directly. Here is his response:

@huskylenz 2013 is for sure

— PerrisBlackwell (@PerrisBwell0) June 10, 2012

While most people would assume a player would want to play as soon as possible, maybe he sees the potential for more playing time and more of an immediate impact after Aziz graduates, as well as, the potentially amazing crew of talent around him if Romar is able to bring some of these one-and-done NBA level players to Montlake for 2013. Heck, maybe Romar even recommended that he hold off until the 2013-14 season. And while 2012-13 could potentially be a painful year for Husky fans, maybe in the bigger scheme of things having a veteran frontline presence to compliment the youth that will be coming in 2013 might just be the tipping point that turns the Huskies from a solid to an elite team.

But, even with Blackwell sitting out for 2012-13, there are still two other very distinct possibilities that could free up another scholarship for the 2013 recruiting class. The first is that C.J. Wilcox may very well explode next year to the point where he would enter the NBA draft. People have been talking about this possibility for some time now. Wilcox has a lot of the tools to be successful in the NBA. After next year, he would have been in the program for four years and might not feel he has anything else left to prove. In addition, if Romar really were able to land players like Gordon and Parker, then Wilcox might feel his possibility to shine in his final season might be diminished, much like IT probably thought about last year with Wroten arriving. It worked out for IT, so maybe Wilcox will take the same route.

Another possibility is a scholarship opening up due to transfer. People do not like to talk about transfers, but they do happen quite frequently, and not always for reasons that are clear. In fact, there are more than 400 Division I transfers occurring this off-season, which averages out to more than 1 per team. Sometimes players transfer because they want more playing time, sometimes they have conflicts with other players or coaches, and sometimes they are just homesick. If a Hikeem Stewart realized he won’t get much playing time behind Andrews, Mclaughlin, Williams-Goss, and maybe a player like Bird, he could be a candidate. Perhaps Bruenig will get homesick or never quite fit in. Maybe Jarreau will want to return down south. You just never know what will happen. But, if anyone does transfer, that could open up a 4th available scholarship as well, even if both Wilcox and Blackwell are still on the team in 2013-14.

It certainly will be interesting to watch…